PDC

Cyclicals

Công ty Cổ phần Du lịch Dầu khí Phương Đông

Du lịch và Giải trí/Du lịch & Giải tríCT

4.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Fairly Valued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

4.676

Current

4.500

Gap

+3.9%

ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Du lịch và Giải trí→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Du lịch và Giải trí" maps to the cyclical group

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→13.16B

Fair EV/EBITDA→5.0x

Years of data→7

Valuation

Mid-Cycle EBITDA

13.16B

Fair EV/EBITDA

5.0x

Net Debt

-4.32B

Equity Value

4.676

Years of data→7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — PDC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.40

Moderate

DSRI

1.089

GMI

0.919

AQI

0.949

SGI

0.939

DEPI

0.846

SGAI

0.894

TATA

0.016

LVGI

0.897

PDC exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.4045, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in cash conversion and receivables, which may pose risks to financial stability.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 54.0/100, with particularly low cash conversion at 17.7/100, indicating potential issues in converting earnings into cash.
Receivables quality at 29.7/100 suggests potential problems in collection efficiency, which could impact liquidity.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.4045, well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting lower risk of earnings manipulation.
Strong accrual quality score of 93.4/100 indicates that reported earnings are likely to be genuine and not overly aggressive.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is highly concentrated, with the top five shareholders holding over 80% of the company. This concentration may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow and receivables management, while considering the relatively low risk of earnings manipulation. A deeper analysis of operational efficiency and governance practices is recommended before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

0.58

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.09

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+15.1%

Volatility

111.7%

Max Drawdown

-33.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

15.68P/E

P/B0.55

P/S1.82

ROE3.6%

ROA2.1%

EPS344.40

BVPS9841.71

Gross Margin38.5%

Net Margin11.6%

D/E0.66

Current Ratio1.08

Rev Growth-6.1%

Profit Growth28.8%

EV/EBITDA4.60

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

15.0M

Charter Capital

150.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Du lịch và Giải trí

Industry (ICB L3)

Du lịch & Giải trí

Sub-industry

Vận tải hành khách & Du lịch

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for PDC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Lê Kim Giang

Indiv

20.3%

3.0 trieu

Lê Thanh Thản

Indiv

20.0%

3.0 trieu

Đỗ Trung Kiên

Indiv

19.0%

2.9 trieu

Phạm Thị Thu Thủy

Indiv

11.1%

1.7 trieu

Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước Giải khát Sài Gòn

Inst

9.8%

1.5 trieu

Lê Thị Hoàng Yến

Indiv

9.4%

1.4 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Và Kinh Doanh Tài Sản Việt Nam

Inst

5.8%

876.883

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán Dầu khí

Inst

3.4%

510.846

Board & Management

Lê Thanh Thản20.0%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Thị Thu Thủy11.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Thị Hoàng Yến9.4%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Thị Thu Hương

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Trần Đình Trí

Giám đốc Chi nhánh

Lê Văn Thìn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Nguyễn Thị Nguyệt

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát/Kế toán trưởng

Thái Hồng Nhã

Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Việt Hà

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Đinh Sỹ Đức

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thế Hoàng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

WSB86.3%BSL68.8%BSQ66.6%SCD62.1%SBB59.6%SB154.7%BSD51.2%SMB32.2%BSP27.0%TIS19.0%DKC15.9%STD14.4%

Computed 12/04/2026