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Cyclicals sector

BSR

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Lọc Hóa dầu Bình Sơn
Dầu khí/Sản xuất Dầu khíCT
27.600
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
7.806
Current
27.600
Gap
-71.7%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTDầu khíCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Dầu khí" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA6740.03B
Fair EV/EBITDA6.2x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
6740.03B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
6.2x
-
Net Debt
2878.34B
=
Equity Value
7.806
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — BSR

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

74
Good
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
81
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.83
Low Risk
DSRI
0.944
GMI
0.092
AQI
1.025
SGI
1.151
DEPI
0.882
SGAI
1.128
TATA
-0.000
LVGI
0.778

BSR exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.8311, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the company's earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in revenue and margin quality, which could raise concerns about sustainability and transparency.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 74.2/100 is decent, but the eq_margin and eq_revenue scores are both 0.0/100, indicating potential issues in revenue recognition and profit margins.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.8311 is well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting that the likelihood of earnings manipulation is low.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Tập Đoàn Công Nghiệp – Năng Lượng Quốc Gia Việt Nam holding 92.1% of shares, which may lead to governance risks and reduced minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor BSR's revenue recognition practices and margin improvements. Given the high ownership concentration, consider engaging with management for greater transparency on financial practices.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
4.64
Safe Zone
Sharpe
1.51
Excellent
Composite
61
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+61.9%
Volatility
49.6%
Max Drawdown
-29.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
26.51P/E
P/B2.29
P/S0.98
ROE9.0%
ROA6.0%
EPS1041.20
BVPS12078.56
Gross Margin4.3%
Net Margin3.7%
D/E0.41
Current Ratio2.95
Rev Growth15.1%
Profit Growth726.1%
EV/EBITDA20.93
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
5007.3M
Charter Capital
50073.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Dầu khí
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất Dầu khí
Sub-industry
Sản xuất và Khai thác dầu khí
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for BSR — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tập Đoàn Công Nghiệp – Năng Lượng Quốc Gia Việt Nam
Inst
92.1%
2.9 ty
KIM Vietnam Growth Equity Fund
Inst
0.5%
16.4 trieu
KITMC Worldwide Vietnam RSP Balanced Fund
Inst
0.1%
4.2 trieu
Board & Management
Bùi Minh Tiến
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Văn Hội
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Khương Lê Thành
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Hải Âu
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Việt Thắng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Hà Đổng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Hoàng Ngọc Xuân
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Thái Bảo
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Bạch Đức Long
Kế toán trưởng
Nghiêm Đức Dương
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Vũ Lê Huy
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phạm Ngọc Quý
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Bá Phước
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Ngọc Anh
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Đoàn Thịnh
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Bùi Ngọc Dương
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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