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Cyclicals sector

TTH

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Thương mại và Dịch vụ Tiến Thành
Tài nguyên Cơ bản/Kim loạiCT
2.400
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
7.487
Current
2.400
Gap
+211.9%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTTài nguyên Cơ bảnCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Tài nguyên Cơ bản" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Distressed Valuation
Negative Ebitda Bvps Floor
BVPS
10.695
x
Discount
70%
=
Floor Value
10.695

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TTH

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

36
Weak
Accrual Quality
81
Cash Conversion
40
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-0.28
High Risk
DSRI
0.966
GMI
3.431
AQI
3.824
SGI
0.739
DEPI
0.957
SGAI
0.483
TATA
-0.048
LVGI
0.466

The Beneish M-Score of -0.2847 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 36.3/100, particularly low scores in receivables and revenue metrics, raise concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 36.3/100 indicates significant issues with revenue recognition and cash conversion.
  • Receivables and revenue metrics at 0.0/100 suggest potential overstatement of earnings or aggressive accounting practices.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -0.2847 suggests low risk of earnings manipulation.
  • DSRI of 0.9662 indicates that inventory levels are in line with sales, which is a positive sign.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is fragmented with no single shareholder holding a significant stake, which may lead to governance challenges and lack of strategic direction.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor earnings quality metrics and consider a deeper analysis of cash flow statements before making investment decisions. Engaging with management on their revenue recognition policies could provide additional insights.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.68
Grey Zone
Sharpe
-0.55
Negative
Composite
40
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-23.3%
Volatility
42.2%
Max Drawdown
-34.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
-9.07P/E
P/B0.22
P/S0.15
ROE-2.4%
ROA-1.8%
EPS-264.48
BVPS10695.17
Gross Margin1.4%
Net Margin-1.7%
D/E0.20
Current Ratio5.25
Rev Growth-26.1%
Profit Growth38.4%
EV/EBITDA-8.37
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
37.4M
Charter Capital
373.7B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Tài nguyên Cơ bản
Industry (ICB L3)
Kim loại
Sub-industry
Thép và sản phẩm thép
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TTH — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
nguyen-thanh-tung
Indiv
4.7%
1.4 trieu
Nguyễn Trịnh Chung
Indiv
4.3%
1.6 trieu
Nguyễn Trần Linh Chi
Indiv
3.4%
1.0 trieu
Board & Management
Nguyễn Anh Tuấn
Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ /Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Văn Quyết
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Vũ Văn Trọng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Đoàn Thị Anh
Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Phạm Thị Huyền
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Đào Vũ Thịnh Vân
Kế toán trưởng
Phan Thanh Nam
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Hữu Trường
Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Hà Thị Tuyết Chinh
Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Phạm Quang Chiến
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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