SAB

Consumer

Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước Giải khát Sài Gòn

Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Bia và đồ uốngCT

44.150

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

51.800

Current

44.150

Gap

+17.3%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

73.08%

Kd(1-t)

6.39%

D/(D+E)

26.92%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.07%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→3658.90B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

3658.90B

Growth Rate

3.07%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

51.800

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SAB

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-3.01

Low Risk

DSRI

0.611

GMI

0.814

AQI

1.156

SGI

0.812

DEPI

1.052

SGAI

1.263

TATA

0.021

LVGI

1.094

SAB exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -3.014, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses in receivables and revenue recognition, which could pose risks to financial integrity.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 53.3/100, particularly low eq_receivables and eq_revenue scores of 0.0/100, indicating potential issues in revenue recognition and collection.
SGAI at 1.2627 suggests aggressive spending on sales and marketing, which may not translate into proportional revenue growth.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -3.014, well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating a lower risk of earnings manipulation.
High eq_accrual score of 91.8/100 suggests strong accrual accounting practices, which is a positive indicator of earnings quality.

Ownership Risk

The concentrated ownership structure, with 53.6% held by Vietnam Beverage and 36.0% by a state-owned enterprise, may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest in decision-making.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and receivables management. Consider a cautious approach to investment until improvements in earnings quality metrics are observed.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

5.92

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.06

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+13.9%

Volatility

33.7%

Max Drawdown

-18.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

14.06P/E

P/B2.94

P/S2.40

ROE19.9%

ROA13.4%

EPS3448.99

BVPS16492.60

Gross Margin35.9%

Net Margin17.1%

D/E0.42

Current Ratio2.49

Rev Growth-18.4%

Profit Growth2.2%

EV/EBITDA11.67

Div Yield4.1%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

1282.6M

Charter Capital

12825.6B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Thực phẩm và đồ uống

Industry (ICB L3)

Bia và đồ uống

Sub-industry

Sản xuất bia

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SAB — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty TNHH Vietnam Beverage

Inst

53.6%

687.3 trieu

Tổng Công ty Đầu Tư Và Kinh Doanh Vốn Nhà Nước

State

36.0%

461.8 trieu

Able Win Gain Limited

Inst

3.9%

25.2 trieu

Heineken Asia Pacific Pte. Ltd.

Inst

0.4%

2.5 trieu

Board & Management

Trần Nguyên Trung

Kế toán trưởng

Venus Teoh Kim Wei

Phó Tổng Giám đốc Marketing/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

NEO GIM SIONG BENNETT

Tổng Giám đốc

Ngô Minh Châu

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Thanh Tuấn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Tiến Vỵ

Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Pramoad Phornprapha

Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ /Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Michael Chye Hin Fah

Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Kim Nga

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Koh Poh Tiong

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Ng Kuan Ngee Melvyn

Phó Tổng Giám đốc Kinh doanh

Teo Hong Keng

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Phó Tổng Giám đốc Tài chính - Kế toán/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Lâm Du An

Phó Tổng Giám đốc Sản xuất/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Top connections

SJG99.8%MIE99.6%TVN93.9%VGV87.3%VNP65.8%DVN2 links SEA63.4%QTC53.8%VGT53.5%CAG53.0%BMI50.7%VXB49.8%

Computed 12/04/2026