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Utilities sector

SP2

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Thủy điện Sử Pán 2
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Sản xuất & Phân phối ĐiệnCT
22.900
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
35.759
Current
22.900
Gap
+56.1%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend10.00%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:EPS default
DPS1.431
Payout ratio50.0%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
1.431
Base Growth
10.00%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
35.759
Value Decomposition
24%
76%
Explicit period (24%)Terminal value (76%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SP2

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

58
Fair
Accrual Quality
98
Cash Conversion
77
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
17
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-0.10
High Risk
DSRI
3.442
GMI
1.018
AQI
1.177
SGI
0.978
DEPI
0.900
SGAI
0.905
TATA
0.004
LVGI
0.846

SP2 exhibits several concerning financial indicators, particularly a high DSRI of 3.4425, suggesting potential revenue manipulation. While its Beneish M-Score of -0.0963 is below the manipulation threshold, the earnings quality score of 58.4/100 indicates weaknesses in revenue recognition and margin quality.

Red Flags
  • DSRI of 3.4425 indicates significant growth in receivables relative to sales, suggesting potential revenue manipulation.
  • Earnings quality margin score of 16.9/100 is alarmingly low, indicating poor earnings sustainability.
Positive Signals
  • High eq_accrual score of 98.2/100 suggests strong accrual quality, indicating that reported earnings are likely to be realized as cash.
  • Ownership concentration with top institutions holding 76.5% of shares may provide stability and align interests with long-term performance.
Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership among institutional investors reduces the risk of erratic decision-making but may also lead to governance issues if interests diverge from minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor SP2's revenue recognition practices and consider a cautious approach until clearer signs of earnings sustainability emerge. Engaging with management for transparency on revenue growth strategies is advisable.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
0.93
Distress Zone
Sharpe
0.56
Positive
Composite
68
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+33.3%
Volatility
29.9%
Max Drawdown
-20.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
8.00P/E
P/B2.67
P/S2.72
ROE40.0%
ROA10.2%
EPS2861.80
BVPS8580.72
Gross Margin47.0%
Net Margin34.0%
D/E2.13
Current Ratio0.35
Rev Growth-2.2%
Profit Growth10.0%
EV/EBITDA4.32
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
20.7M
Charter Capital
207.5B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Sub-industry
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SP2 — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty TNHH Năng Lượng Ree
Inst
35.0%
7.2 trieu
Công ty Cổ Phần Năng Lượng An Xuân
Inst
25.2%
5.2 trieu
Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Khu Công Nghiệp Việt Nam
Inst
16.3%
3.4 trieu
Nguyễn Thị Tuyết Oanh
Indiv
4.4%
915.789
Mai Đình Nhật
Indiv
4.1%
851.450
Công ty Cổ phần Simacai
Inst
2.0%
668.000
Board & Management
Bùi Quế Lâm
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Kim Văn Sỹ
Kế toán trưởng
Đỗ Anh Thái
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Khương Đức Dũng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Văn Tuyền
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Xuân Hồng
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Hà Thị Hải Yến
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Đỗ Đức Mạnh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Quang Luân
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Bùi Quang Chung
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Đoàn Hải Chiến
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
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