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Utilities sector

TMP

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Thủy điện Thác Mơ
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Sản xuất & Phân phối ĐiệnCT
55.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
107.164
Current
55.000
Gap
+94.8%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default2.00%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS5.683
Payout ratio106.4%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
5.683
Base Growth
2.00%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
107.164
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TMP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

69
Fair
Accrual Quality
56
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
64
Revenue Quality
24

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-3.34
Low Risk
DSRI
0.691
GMI
1.085
AQI
0.913
SGI
0.987
DEPI
0.971
SGAI
1.146
TATA
-0.114
LVGI
1.033

The Beneish M-Score of -3.3371 indicates that TMP is not likely engaging in earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics show significant weaknesses, particularly in revenue recognition, which could pose risks to the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 68.9/100 indicates potential concerns, especially with a low eq_revenue score of 24.0/100, suggesting aggressive revenue recognition practices.
  • SGAI at 1.1462 indicates higher selling, general, and administrative expenses relative to sales, which could signal inefficiencies or potential mismanagement.
Positive Signals
  • A DSRI of 0.6909 suggests that TMP is managing its inventory effectively, which is a positive sign in terms of operational efficiency.
  • High cash conversion metrics (eq_cash_conv at 100.0/100 and eq_receivables at 100.0/100) indicate strong cash flow management and effective collection practices.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated with institutional investors holding 94.5% of shares, which may reduce the risk of shareholder disputes but could also lead to a lack of diverse perspectives in governance.

Recommendation

Investors should monitor TMP's revenue recognition practices closely and consider the implications of its high SG&A expenses. A thorough review of operational efficiency and governance practices is recommended before making significant investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
6.15
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.41
Negative
Composite
59
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
-9.5%
Volatility
31.8%
Max Drawdown
-14.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
12.18P/E
P/B2.33
P/S5.11
ROE20.0%
ROA14.8%
EPS4516.53
BVPS23633.16
Gross Margin53.3%
Net Margin42.0%
D/E0.33
Current Ratio3.62
Rev Growth-1.3%
Profit Growth-9.8%
EV/EBITDA9.14
Div Yield1.8%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
70.0M
Charter Capital
700.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Sub-industry
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TMP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Phát điện 2
Inst
51.9%
36.3 trieu
Công ty TNHH Năng Lượng Ree
Inst
42.6%
29.8 trieu
Board & Management
Đinh Văn Sơn
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Huỳnh Văn Khánh
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Tuấn Hải
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Quang Quyền
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Bùi Thị Kim Na
Kế toán trưởng/Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán
Hồ Thành Công
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Lai Lệ Hương
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Văn Non
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Hùng Lượng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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