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Cyclicals sector

SRC

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Cao su Sao Vàng
Ô tô và phụ tùngCT
53.800
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
24.359
Current
53.800
Gap
-54.7%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTCyclical
Defaulted to cyclical (no specific sector mapping found)
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA68.63B
Fair EV/EBITDA16.4x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
68.63B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
16.4x
-
Net Debt
441.96B
=
Equity Value
24.359
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SRC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

33
Weak
Accrual Quality
45
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-0.84
High Risk
DSRI
1.397
GMI
1.438
AQI
0.766
SGI
1.416
DEPI
1.020
SGAI
0.689
TATA
0.158
LVGI
1.100

SRC exhibits several concerning indicators of earnings manipulation, as suggested by its Beneish M-Score of -0.8433, which is above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. The earnings quality score of 33.3/100, particularly low cash conversion metrics, raises further concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -0.8433 indicates potential earnings manipulation; DSRI at 1.3970 suggests increasing receivables relative to sales.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 33.3/100, with cash conversion at 0.0/100, indicates severe issues with cash flow relative to earnings.
Positive Signals
  • Receivables quality score at 100.0/100 indicates strong management of receivables, suggesting effective collection practices.
Ownership Risk

The top two shareholders, Công ty Cp Tập Đoàn Hoành Sơn and Tập đoàn Hóa chất Việt Nam, hold a combined 86.2% of shares, indicating a concentrated ownership structure that may limit minority shareholder influence and raise governance concerns.

Recommendation

Investors should approach SRC with caution, closely monitoring cash flow and earnings quality metrics. Consider a detailed review of financial statements and governance practices before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.54
Grey Zone
Sharpe
1.62
Excellent
Composite
43
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+98.3%
Volatility
43.2%
Max Drawdown
-16.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
61.33P/E
P/B2.66
P/S1.04
ROE4.3%
ROA1.9%
EPS877.20
BVPS20215.77
Gross Margin9.9%
Net Margin1.7%
D/E1.36
Current Ratio1.25
Rev Growth40.1%
Profit Growth-83.8%
EV/EBITDA34.31
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
28.1M
Charter Capital
280.7B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Ô tô và phụ tùng
Industry (ICB L3)
Ô tô và phụ tùng
Sub-industry
Lốp xe
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SRC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cp Tập Đoàn Hoành Sơn
Inst
50.2%
14.1 trieu
Tập đoàn Hóa chất Việt Nam
Inst
36.0%
10.1 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư và Phát triển Việt Trung Nam
Inst
5.0%
999.510
Nguyễn Tiến Ngọc
Indiv
4.9%
1.4 trieu
Hồ Việt Hưng
Indiv
1.3%
359.000
Lê Công An
Indiv
0.5%
104.649
Nguyễn Gia Tường
Indiv
0.5%
99.998
Đào Thị Hoa
Indiv
0.5%
100.118
Nguyễn Thị Hợp
Indiv
0.2%
43.105
Mai Chiến Thắng
Indiv
0.2%
51.571
Board & Management
Phạm Hoành Sơn
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Vũ Thị Mai Nhung
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Minh Tuấn
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Phan Duy Phức
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Nguyễn Việt Hùng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Quang Hào
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thanh Tùng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Kế toán trưởng/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán
Lương Xuân Hoàng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Hoàng Văn Hòa
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Đình Sơn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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