SZG

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Sonadezi Giang Điền

Bất động sảnCT

33.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

22.040

Current

33.000

Gap

-33.2%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

22.03%

Kd(1-t)

6.44%

D/(D+E)

77.97%

WACC

10.00%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend8.49%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

10.600

60%DCF Value

29.667

Blended Intrinsic

22.040

Value Decomposition

31%

69%

Explicit period (31%)Terminal value (69%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SZG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.32

High Risk

DSRI

1.307

GMI

1.275

AQI

0.969

SGI

1.477

DEPI

0.892

SGAI

0.532

TATA

0.054

LVGI

1.015

SZG exhibits a moderate risk of earnings manipulation, as indicated by a Beneish M-Score of -1.3233, which is above the threshold for potential manipulation. While the earnings quality score of 56.6 suggests some strengths, particularly in receivables and margins, the low cash conversion rate raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -1.3233 indicates potential earnings manipulation risk, as it is above the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings Quality Score of 56.6 is concerning, particularly the eq_cash_conv at 0.0/100, indicating poor cash conversion from earnings.

Positive Signals

Strong receivables quality score at 100.0/100 suggests effective collection processes.
High eq_margin at 99.4/100 indicates strong profitability relative to revenues.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows significant concentration with 46.5% held by a single institutional investor, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest. The individual shareholder's stake is negligible, indicating limited minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow statements and operational performance to validate earnings quality. Consider a cautious approach to investment until there is clearer evidence of sustainable cash generation.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.28

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.04

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+22.2%

Volatility

110.3%

Max Drawdown

-27.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

7.66P/E

P/B1.72

P/S2.79

ROE24.1%

ROA5.4%

EPS4310.42

BVPS19236.43

Gross Margin46.8%

Net Margin36.4%

D/E3.54

Current Ratio10.15

Rev Growth47.7%

Profit Growth28.0%

EV/EBITDA3.22

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

54.9M

Charter Capital

549.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SZG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Phát triển Khu Công nghiệp

Inst

46.5%

25.5 trieu

Top connections

SZE64.0%DNW64.0%D2D57.9%SZL52.7%SZC46.8%SZB46.5%DND46.5%SDN46.5%SDV46.5%

Computed 12/04/2026