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Construction sector

TCK

Construction
Tổng Công ty Cơ khí Xây dựng - CTCP
Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT
3.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
1.141
Current
3.000
Gap
-62.0%
ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CTXây dựng và Vật liệuConstruction
Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group
ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.100
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.20%
Ke
12.20%
x
E/(D+E)
100.00%
+
Kd(1-t)
0.00%
x
D/(D+E)
0.00%
=
WACC
12.20%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend3.00%
Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
50%EV/EBITDA Value
4.462
50%DCF Value
-2.180
Blended Intrinsic
1.141
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TCK

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

70
Fair
Accrual Quality
99
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.83
Low Risk
DSRI
0.776
GMI
1.147
AQI
0.679
SGI
1.165
DEPI
0.722
SGAI
2.152
TATA
-0.003
LVGI
0.996

The Beneish M-Score of -2.8336 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the high SGI of 1.1646 and low earnings quality metrics raise concerns about revenue sustainability and margin pressures.

Red Flags
  • SGI of 1.1646 suggests aggressive growth that may not be supported by underlying fundamentals.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 69.7/100, particularly low scores in eq_margin (0.0/100) and eq_revenue (0.0/100), indicate potential issues with revenue recognition and profitability.
Positive Signals
  • Strong accrual (98.9/100) and cash conversion (100.0/100) metrics suggest that the company is effectively converting earnings into cash, which is a positive indicator of operational efficiency.
Ownership Risk

The overwhelming state ownership at 98.8% may lead to reduced market discipline and transparency, as decisions may prioritize state objectives over shareholder value.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue growth trends and margin improvements while considering the implications of high state ownership. A cautious approach is advised until clearer signs of sustainable profitability emerge.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
-0.28
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-0.99
Negative
Composite
45
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+0.0%
Volatility
51.9%
Max Drawdown
-37.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
11.62P/E
P/B0.00
P/S0.21
ROE-15.2%
ROA0.7%
EPS258.11
BVPS0.00
Gross Margin19.5%
Net Margin1.8%
D/E-27.06
Current Ratio0.73
Rev Growth16.5%
Profit Growth-83.5%
EV/EBITDA6.25
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
23.9M
Charter Capital
238.5B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Industry (ICB L3)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Sub-industry
Xây dựng
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TCK — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Bộ Xây Dựng
State
98.8%
23.6 trieu
Board & Management
Nguyễn Văn Sơn
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phạm Việt Hùng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Vũ Xuân Thắng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Tuyết Nhung
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Thế Thủy
Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trịnh Nam Hải
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Đinh Thị Hương
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Vũ Thị Thủy
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phan Tố Lan
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Đào Đức Thọ
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Hướng Dương
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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