VGC

Construction

Tổng Công ty Viglacera - Công ty Cổ phần

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

45.600

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Fairly Valued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

47.338

Current

45.600

Gap

+3.8%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

40.09%

Kd(1-t)

5.81%

D/(D+E)

59.91%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.86%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

39.155

50%DCF Value

55.521

Blended Intrinsic

47.338

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VGC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.93

Low Risk

DSRI

0.920

GMI

0.984

AQI

1.036

SGI

1.118

DEPI

1.004

SGAI

0.950

TATA

-0.110

LVGI

0.939

VGC exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.9284, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant concerns, particularly with a 0.0/100 score in revenue quality, suggesting potential issues in revenue recognition.

Red Flags

Revenue quality score of 0.0/100 indicates severe concerns regarding the legitimacy of reported revenues.
High concentration of ownership with Tổng Công ty Viglacera holding 99.9%, which may lead to governance risks and lack of accountability.

Positive Signals

Earnings Quality Score of 74.3/100 reflects overall strong cash conversion and receivables management, which are positive indicators.
Beneish M-Score of -2.9284 suggests a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, which is a positive signal in the context of financial integrity.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is highly concentrated, with the top shareholder holding 99.9% of shares, which raises concerns about minority shareholder rights and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and consider engaging with management regarding governance practices due to the concentrated ownership structure. A cautious approach is advised given the elevated risk level.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

1.70

Distress Zone

Sharpe

0.02

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

-0.4%

Volatility

43.0%

Max Drawdown

-37.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

16.07P/E

P/B2.61

P/S1.69

ROE16.5%

ROA5.5%

EPS3129.61

BVPS19267.91

Gross Margin30.0%

Net Margin10.5%

D/E1.29

Current Ratio1.25

Rev Growth12.1%

Profit Growth27.0%

EV/EBITDA6.19

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

448.4M

Charter Capital

4483.5B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VGC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Viglacera

Inst

99.9%

Công ty Cổ phần Hạ tầng GELEX

Inst

50.2%

225.1 trieu

Bộ Xây Dựng

State

38.6%

173.0 trieu

Quỹ Đầu tư Giá trị Bảo Việt

Inst

2.2%

10.0 trieu

Vietnam Investment Property Holdings Limited

Inst

1.6%

6.9 trieu

Vietnam Ventures Limited

Inst

1.6%

6.8 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán VIX

Inst

1.4%

6.2 trieu

asia value investment limited

Inst

1.3%

5.3 trieu

Wareham Group Limited

Inst

1.0%

4.7 trieu

DC Developing Markets Strategies Public Limited Company

Inst

0.4%

1.6 trieu

Vietnam Investment Limited

Inst

0.3%

1.4 trieu

aquila spc ltd

Inst

0.3%

1.2 trieu

Draig Ltd

Inst

0.2%

919.800

Nguyễn Minh Tuấn

Indiv

0.2%

921.000

Quỹ Đầu tư Giá trị MB Capital

Inst

0.2%

810.370

Quỹ Đầu tư Trái phiếu MB

Inst

0.2%

700.000

nguyen-anh-tuan

Indiv

0.1%

564.500

amersham industries limited

Inst

0.1%

476.000

Board & Management

Nguyễn Anh Tuấn0.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Minh Khoa

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Quách Hữu Thuận

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Văn Tuấn

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Thị Minh Loan

Giám đốc Tài chính

Nguyễn Trọng Hiền

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Trần Ngọc Anh

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Ngô Trọng Toán

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Anh Tuấn

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Mạnh Hữu

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Lương Thanh Tùng

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Đỗ Thị Phương Lan

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Cẩm Vân

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Thanh Yến

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

HOÀNG KIM BỒNG

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Top connections

DSG99.9%TLT3 links DAC99.9%VIH2 links VIM2 links VIT2 links VHL99.9%HLY2 links VTS99.9%HAN98.8%TCK98.8%LLM97.9%

Computed 12/04/2026