TDC

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Kinh doanh và Phát triển Bình Dương

Bất động sảnCT

10.950

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

17.042

Current

10.950

Gap

+55.6%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

27.41%

Kd(1-t)

7.32%

D/(D+E)

72.59%

WACC

10.00%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

16.570

60%DCF Value

17.356

Blended Intrinsic

17.042

Value Decomposition

33%

67%

Explicit period (33%)Terminal value (67%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TDC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-0.39

High Risk

DSRI

0.745

GMI

2.569

AQI

0.731

SGI

2.117

DEPI

1.162

SGAI

0.606

TATA

0.102

LVGI

0.858

TDC exhibits several concerning financial metrics, particularly a high GMI of 2.5689, indicating potential earnings manipulation. Despite a negative Beneish M-Score of -0.3858, which suggests no immediate red flags for manipulation, the low earnings quality score of 34.8/100 raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

High GMI of 2.5689 indicates potential earnings manipulation risk.
Earnings Quality Score of 34.8/100 reflects poor earnings quality, particularly with cash conversion at 0.0/100.

Positive Signals

DSRI of 0.7454 suggests a lower risk of revenue manipulation through inventory management.
Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of receivables.

Ownership Risk

The concentrated ownership structure, with the largest shareholder holding 47.7%, poses a risk of governance issues and potential conflicts of interest, particularly in decision-making processes.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor TDC's earnings quality and cash conversion metrics, and consider a cautious approach until clearer signs of financial stability and transparency emerge.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.14

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.63

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-8.7%

Volatility

14.0%

Max Drawdown

-29.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

5.05P/E

P/B0.83

P/S0.56

ROE19.2%

ROA6.2%

EPS2167.42

BVPS13256.18

Gross Margin20.1%

Net Margin11.1%

D/E1.65

Current Ratio0.94

Rev Growth111.3%

Profit Growth-33.5%

EV/EBITDA7.68

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

127.2M

Charter Capital

1272.3B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Tư Vấn, Định giá, Môi giới Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TDC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tập đoàn Đầu tư và Phát triển Công nghiệp Becamex

Inst

47.7%

60.7 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần An Phú Gia Holdings

Inst

8.0%

10.2 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Hải Đăng TBCONS

Inst

7.6%

9.7 trieu

Lê Quốc Hưng

Indiv

1.0%

980.000

Hồ Hoàn Thành

Indiv

0.8%

1.0 trieu

Đặng Đình Phúc

Indiv

0.4%

500.000

Lê Minh Tâm

Indiv

0.3%

292.170

Huỳnh Thị Phương Thảo

Indiv

0.1%

109.470

Board & Management

Hồ Hoàn Thành0.8%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Huỳnh Thị Phương Thảo0.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Lý Thị Bình

Kế toán trưởng/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Bùi Thị Lan

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Đoàn Văn Thuận

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Giang Quốc Dũng

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Tuyết Loan

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trịnh Thị Thu

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Lê Thị Diệu Thanh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Quảng Văn Viết Cương

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Hoàn Vũ

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Thùy Dương

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Tuyết Nga

Trưởng phòng Tài chính

Nguyễn Văn Hiền Phúc

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Lê Văn Hiền

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Top connections

UDJ51.0%IJC49.8%TTN48.6%BCE47.7%BWE47.7%SGD8.8%PIV5.0%CTA4.5%CVT4.5%THG4.0%HAG2.6%TNT2.2%

Computed 12/04/2026