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Construction sector

TGG

Construction
Công ty Cổ phần The Golden Group
Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT
2.300
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
17.129
Current
2.300
Gap
+500.0%
ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CTXây dựng và Vật liệuConstruction
Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group
ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.100
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.20%
Ke
12.20%
x
E/(D+E)
59.88%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.40%
x
D/(D+E)
40.12%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default3.00%
Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
50%EV/EBITDA Value
50%DCF Value
17.129
Blended Intrinsic
17.129
Value Decomposition
35%
65%
Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TGG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

38
Weak
Accrual Quality
32
Cash Conversion
40
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-3.39
Low Risk
DSRI
1.045
GMI
1.089
AQI
1.070
SGI
0.887
DEPI
1.048
SGAI
0.926
TATA
-0.206
LVGI
0.930

TGG exhibits several concerning indicators that suggest potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -3.3869, well below the manipulation threshold. The earnings quality score of 37.9/100, particularly low in revenue and margin metrics, raises further concerns about the reliability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -3.3869 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation, significantly below the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 37.9/100, with revenue and margin metrics at 0.0/100, suggests severe issues in revenue recognition and profitability.
Positive Signals
  • Receivables metric at 100.0/100 indicates strong management of receivables, which could imply effective credit control.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is relatively fragmented with the largest institutional shareholder holding only 18.6%, which may lead to governance challenges and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence, particularly focusing on cash flow statements and revenue recognition practices before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.20
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-1.95
Negative
Composite
43
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-32.0%
Volatility
0.0%
Max Drawdown
-40.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
-7.32P/E
P/B0.52
P/S0.15
ROE-6.9%
ROA-3.0%
EPS-314.22
BVPS4410.05
Gross Margin8.8%
Net Margin-2.0%
D/E0.60
Current Ratio1.51
Rev Growth-11.3%
Profit Growth26.2%
EV/EBITDA64.40
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
27.3M
Charter Capital
273.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Industry (ICB L3)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Sub-industry
Xây dựng
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TGG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ phần Sản xuất Xuất nhập khẩu NHP
Inst
18.6%
5.1 trieu
Phạm Thị Thủy
Indiv
4.9%
1.3 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư NHP
Inst
4.8%
1.3 trieu
Đỗ Mạnh Hùng
Indiv
4.8%
1.3 trieu
Trương Đình Chuẩn
Indiv
4.6%
1.2 trieu
Đặng Mai Hương
Indiv
4.4%
1.2 trieu
Trần Quyết Thắng
Indiv
4.0%
1.1 trieu
Trương Thị Thanh Trà
Indiv
3.0%
814.200
Cao Việt Bách
Indiv
0.6%
161.800
Đặng Quang Trung
Indiv
0.6%
150.000
Phạm Việt Thắng
Indiv
0.4%
100.000
Khuất Thư Hương
Indiv
0.4%
100.000
Board & Management
Nguyễn Thị Hoa
Kế toán trưởng
Đỗ Thành Nhân
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Hồ Hưng
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Trung Kiên
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Ngô Thục Vũ
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trịnh Văn Bảo
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Minh Vương
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Hồ Lê Hoàng Anh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Kiều Liên
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Vũ Anh Sinh
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Võ Kim Nguyên
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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