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Utilities sector

THW

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Cấp nước Tân Hòa
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
17.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
13.565
Current
17.000
Gap
-20.2%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend7.10%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS600
Payout ratio31.8%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
600
Base Growth
7.10%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
13.565
Value Decomposition
25%
75%
Explicit period (25%)Terminal value (75%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — THW

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

49
Weak
Accrual Quality
37
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
68
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
41

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-0.44
High Risk
DSRI
1.954
GMI
1.042
AQI
1.431
SGI
1.159
DEPI
0.987
SGAI
0.958
TATA
0.186
LVGI
1.143

THW exhibits several concerning financial metrics that suggest potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -0.4364, which is well above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. The earnings quality score of 49.1/100, combined with low cash conversion metrics, raises further concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -0.4364 indicates potential earnings manipulation risk, as it is significantly above the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 49.1/100, particularly low cash conversion score of 0.0/100, suggests poor quality of earnings.
  • DSRI of 1.9538 indicates that accounts receivable are growing faster than revenue, which could signal aggressive revenue recognition practices.
Positive Signals
  • Strong gross margin score of 100.0/100 indicates effective cost management and pricing power.
  • SGI of 1.1594 suggests that the company is experiencing revenue growth, which can be a positive indicator in the context of market expansion.
Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership, with Tổng Công ty Cấp nước Sài Gòn holding 65.0%, raises potential governance concerns, as decision-making may not reflect minority shareholder interests.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor THW's financial disclosures and consider a cautious approach, given the elevated risk of earnings manipulation. It may be prudent to wait for improved earnings quality metrics before making significant investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
1/9
Weak
Z-Score
3.13
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.48
Positive
Composite
52
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+37.8%
Volatility
76.7%
Max Drawdown
-36.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
8.15P/E
P/B1.35
P/S0.41
ROE16.7%
ROA8.1%
EPS2086.18
BVPS12590.79
Gross Margin17.0%
Net Margin5.0%
D/E1.20
Current Ratio1.75
Rev Growth15.9%
Profit Growth9.3%
EV/EBITDA5.26
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
5.0M
Charter Capital
50.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Nước
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for THW — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Cấp nước Sài Gòn
Inst
65.0%
3.3 trieu
Trần Hữu Nam
Indiv
10.8%
537.800
Trần Sĩ Nam
Indiv
10.4%
517.800
Phạm Thị Trúc
Indiv
4.3%
215.100
Board & Management
Nguyễn Thị Thanh Tuyền
Kế toán trưởng
Lại Thị Thanh Nga
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Trương Tấn Quốc
Phó Giám đốc
Lê Văn Sơn
Phó Giám đốc
Vũ Khánh Trùng Dương
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Trần Thị Ngọc Luyến
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Thị Thanh Tâm
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lê Trung Thành
Phó Giám đốc Điều hành
Nguyễn Thị Kiều Nguyệt
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Khương Thảo
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Trần Thị Châu Giang
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lê Minh Châu
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thanh Sử
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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