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Utilities sector

BTW

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Cấp nước Bến Thành
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
59.400
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
49.646
Current
59.400
Gap
-16.4%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend6.89%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS2.212
Payout ratio44.7%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
2.212
Base Growth
6.89%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
49.646
Value Decomposition
25%
75%
Explicit period (25%)Terminal value (75%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — BTW

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

69
Fair
Accrual Quality
87
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
57
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.11
Moderate
DSRI
1.210
GMI
0.976
AQI
1.866
SGI
0.981
DEPI
1.007
SGAI
1.020
TATA
-0.033
LVGI
0.962

The Beneish M-Score of -2.1101 indicates that there is no significant evidence of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 68.7 suggests potential concerns, particularly with receivables and revenue recognition.

Red Flags
  • The receivables quality score of 56.8/100 indicates potential issues with revenue collection, which could signal aggressive revenue recognition practices.
  • The revenue quality score of 0.0/100 raises significant concerns about the reliability of reported revenues, suggesting possible manipulation or misreporting.
Positive Signals
  • The cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow performance relative to earnings, which is a positive sign for liquidity and operational efficiency.
  • The institutional ownership is high at 84.8%, which may provide stability and confidence in the company's governance.
Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership among a few institutional investors may pose risks related to governance and decision-making, potentially limiting minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor the company's revenue recognition practices and receivables management. Consider a cautious approach until further clarity on revenue quality and operational transparency is established.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
5.21
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.74
Positive
Composite
67
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+74.7%
Volatility
67.8%
Max Drawdown
-27.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
11.51P/E
P/B2.07
P/S1.01
ROE18.2%
ROA12.6%
EPS5159.40
BVPS28655.37
Gross Margin39.6%
Net Margin8.8%
D/E0.43
Current Ratio1.44
Rev Growth-1.9%
Profit Growth2.6%
EV/EBITDA5.08
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
9.4M
Charter Capital
93.6B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Nước
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for BTW — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Cấp nước Sài Gòn
Inst
53.1%
5.0 trieu
Công Ty TNHH Thương Mại N.T.P
Inst
20.8%
1.9 trieu
Ngân hàng TNHH MTV Số Vikki
Inst
10.0%
936.000
Hồ Lê Minh
Indiv
8.9%
830.550
Công ty TNHH Quản lý Quỹ đầu tư Chứng khoán Đông Á
Inst
1.9%
177.000
Board & Management
Phạm Thị Thanh Vân
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Hữu Cường
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Thị Thu Hương
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Bảo Châu
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Huỳnh Đức Thành
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Thạch Dương Kim An
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phạm Hồng Thắng
Phó Giám đốc
Nguyễn Doãn Xã
Giám đốc
Nguyễn Mười
Phó Giám đốc
Tạ Chương Lâm
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Công Thanh
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Phạm Thị Phương Linh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thanh Tùng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Doãn Xã
Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
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