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Construction sector

GMD

Construction
Công ty Cổ phần Gemadept
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT
78.500
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
56.981
Current
78.500
Gap
-27.4%
ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpConstruction
Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group
ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.100
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.20%
Ke
12.20%
x
E/(D+E)
75.14%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.96%
x
D/(D+E)
24.86%
=
WACC
10.90%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend5.80%
Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
50%EV/EBITDA Value
49.570
50%DCF Value
64.391
Blended Intrinsic
56.981
Value Decomposition
38%
62%
Explicit period (38%)Terminal value (62%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — GMD

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

61
Fair
Accrual Quality
85
Cash Conversion
54
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
25
Revenue Quality
19

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.19
Moderate
DSRI
0.918
GMI
0.968
AQI
1.003
SGI
1.230
DEPI
1.326
SGAI
1.076
TATA
0.037
LVGI
1.059

GMD exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.1872, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in revenue and margin quality, which may pose risks to future performance.

Red Flags
  • SGI at 1.2305 indicates a high growth rate that may not be sustainable.
  • EQ margin score of 24.6/100 suggests poor profitability relative to revenue.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.1872 is below the manipulation threshold, indicating lower risk of earnings manipulation.
  • High receivables quality score of 100.0/100 suggests effective management of accounts receivable.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is relatively fragmented, with no single shareholder holding a significant majority stake, which may dilute accountability. However, institutional presence is moderate, providing some level of oversight.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor GMD's revenue growth and margin improvement strategies, while considering a cautious approach due to the earnings quality concerns. A deeper analysis into operational efficiencies may be warranted.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
4.48
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.70
Positive
Composite
59
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+47.8%
Volatility
39.9%
Max Drawdown
-28.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
19.08P/E
P/B2.44
P/S5.38
ROE13.2%
ROA8.9%
EPS3931.77
BVPS30680.49
Gross Margin45.7%
Net Margin28.2%
D/E0.33
Current Ratio2.60
Rev Growth23.0%
Profit Growth15.2%
EV/EBITDA16.03
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
426.5M
Charter Capital
4265.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Vận tải
Sub-industry
Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for GMD — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Quỹ ETF DCVFMVN DIAMOND
Indiv
5.4%
22.5 trieu
Lê Thúy Hương
Indiv
5.0%
14.7 trieu
PYN Elite Fund
Inst
4.8%
5.7 trieu
Recollection Private Limited
Inst
4.6%
13.6 trieu
KIM Vietnam Growth Equity Fund
Inst
2.2%
10.1 trieu
Wareham Group Limited
Inst
2.0%
2.3 trieu
Ngân hàng Deutsche Aktiengesellschaft
Inst
2.0%
2.3 trieu
Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellchaft, London Branch
Inst
2.0%
2.3 trieu
Citgroup Global Markets Limited
Inst
2.0%
2.3 trieu
VOF Investment Limited
Inst
1.9%
8.1 trieu
tmam vietnam equity mother fund
Inst
1.9%
7.9 trieu
Trần Doãn Phi Anh
Indiv
1.8%
7.7 trieu
nguyen-thi-hong
Indiv
1.8%
7.4 trieu
Công ty Quản lý quỹ đầu tư Dragon Capital
Inst
1.4%
1.6 trieu
Đỗ Văn Nhân
Indiv
0.8%
3.4 trieu
Vietnam Investment Limited
Inst
0.7%
2.8 trieu
Forum One - VinaCapital Vietnam Fund
Inst
0.6%
2.6 trieu
Preston Pacific Limited
Inst
0.5%
2.2 trieu
KITMC Worldwide Vietnam RSP Balanced Fund
Inst
0.5%
2.2 trieu
Vietnam Investment Property Holdings Limited
Inst
0.5%
2.2 trieu
asia value investment limited
Inst
0.4%
1.9 trieu
Chu Đức Khang
Indiv
0.4%
1.9 trieu
Quỹ Đầu tư Cổ phiếu Tiếp Cận Thị Trường VinaCapital
Inst
0.4%
1.8 trieu
Nguyễn Thế Dũng
Indiv
0.4%
1.7 trieu
Quỹ Đầu tư Cổ phiếu Kinh tế hiện đại VinaCapital
Inst
0.4%
1.6 trieu
Đỗ Công Khanh
Indiv
0.4%
1.6 trieu
Trần Kiều Minh
Indiv
0.4%
1.6 trieu
nguyen-minh-nguyet
Indiv
0.4%
1.5 trieu
nguyen-thanh-binh
Indiv
0.3%
1.4 trieu
Vũ Ninh
Indiv
0.3%
1.3 trieu
Vof Pe Holding 5 Limited
Inst
0.3%
1.2 trieu
Phạm Tiến Tịnh
Indiv
0.3%
761.613
Hoàng Thị Thanh
Indiv
0.3%
1.1 trieu
Đỗ Nhật Tân
Indiv
0.2%
1.0 trieu
Quỹ Đầu tư Cổ phiếu Hưng Thịnh Vinacapital
Inst
0.2%
997.100
Nguyễn Quốc Khánh
Indiv
0.2%
258.990
Huỳnh Thị Ái Vân
Indiv
0.2%
855.000
KITMC Worldwide Vietnam Fund II
Inst
0.2%
594.609
Bùi Thị Thu Hương
Indiv
0.2%
788.150
Phạm Quốc Long
Indiv
0.2%
729.000
Trần Quang Tiến
Indiv
0.2%
468.644
Phạm Hồng Hải
Indiv
0.1%
412.005
Công ty Cổ phần Quản lý quỹ VinaCapital
Inst
0.1%
575.402
KIM PMAA Vietnam Securities Investment Trust 1(Equity)
Inst
0.1%
433.333
Đỗ Lộc
Indiv
0.1%
432.670
Board & Management
Đỗ Văn Nhân0.8%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Chu Đức Khang0.4%
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thế Dũng0.4%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Đỗ Công Khanh0.4%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Minh Nguyệt0.4%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Thanh Bình0.3%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Vũ Ninh0.3%
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Bùi Thị Thu Hương0.2%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Quốc Long0.2%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Đức Thuận
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Đỗ Văn Minh
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Lưu Tường Giai
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Vũ Thị Hoàng Bắc
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phan Cẩm Ly
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Hoàng Ngọc Uyên
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Bolat Duisenov
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
David Do
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Tsuyoshi Kato
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Hà Thu Hiền
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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