HNI

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần May Hữu Nghị

Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng/Hàng cá nhânCT

30.100

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

45.703

Current

30.100

Gap

+51.8%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

63.68%

Kd(1-t)

6.36%

D/(D+E)

36.32%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend5.38%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→42.32B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

42.32B

Growth Rate

5.38%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

45.703

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HNI

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.84

Low Risk

DSRI

1.159

GMI

0.949

AQI

0.596

SGI

0.829

DEPI

1.514

SGAI

1.058

TATA

-0.047

LVGI

0.996

HNI exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.8435, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in receivables and revenue recognition, which could pose risks in financial reporting.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 60.3/100, with a critical score of 0.0/100 in eq_receivables and eq_revenue, suggesting potential issues in revenue recognition and collection.
DSRI of 1.1592, indicating a rising level of inventory relative to sales, which may signal overproduction or declining demand.

Positive Signals

Strong cash conversion score of 100.0/100, suggesting effective cash management despite concerns in other areas.
Beneish M-Score of -2.8435, well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows significant concentration with Tập đoàn Dệt May Việt Nam holding 29.2%, which may lead to potential governance risks and influence over decision-making processes.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor HNI's revenue recognition practices and inventory management. Consider a cautious approach, focusing on cash flow stability and governance aspects before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

3.61

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.38

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+11.0%

Volatility

74.9%

Max Drawdown

-23.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

7.61P/E

P/B1.35

P/S0.73

ROE18.6%

ROA11.8%

EPS3941.95

BVPS22175.90

Gross Margin17.7%

Net Margin9.6%

D/E0.57

Current Ratio2.08

Rev Growth-17.1%

Profit Growth-11.5%

EV/EBITDA2.94

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

23.8M

Charter Capital

237.8B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng

Industry (ICB L3)

Hàng cá nhân

Sub-industry

Hàng May mặc

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HNI — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tập đoàn Dệt May Việt Nam

Inst

29.2%

7.0 trieu

Hà Văn Duyệt

Indiv

11.0%

2.6 trieu

Hà Văn Nghĩa

Indiv

5.4%

1.3 trieu

Kiều Ngọc Mạnh Hùng

Indiv

5.4%

1.3 trieu

Hà Văn Long

Indiv

5.1%

1.2 trieu

Dương Thanh Tùng

Indiv

3.0%

720.000

Hà Hải Ninh

Indiv

2.8%

662.348

nguyen-thi-hang-nga

Indiv

2.5%

595.604

Vũ Thị Ngát

Indiv

1.1%

252.816

Phạm Đức Hà

Indiv

0.9%

204.324

Nguyễn Đình Minh

Indiv

0.9%

201.404

Nguyễn Thùy Dương

Indiv

0.5%

120.800

Phan Thanh Sơn

Indiv

0.4%

38.277

Mai Văn Thiên

Indiv

0.3%

62.000

Board & Management

Hà Văn Duyệt11.0%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Hà Văn Nghĩa5.4%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Kiều Ngọc Mạnh Hùng5.4%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Hà Văn Long5.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Dương Thanh Tùng3.0%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Hằng Nga2.5%

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Vũ Thị Ngát1.1%

Kế toán trưởng

Phạm Đức Hà0.9%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Mai Văn Thiên0.3%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Mạc Thuấn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Vũ Thị Nụ

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

VTI68.3%HTG61.9%HDM60.9%SPB60.7%NDT53.7%PPH50.1%TVT46.9%MGG35.2%HUG35.0%VGG30.4%NJC29.2%VDN29.2%

Computed 12/04/2026