VGG

Consumer

Tổng Công Ty Cổ phần May Việt Tiến

Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng/Hàng cá nhânCT

42.300

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

90.792

Current

42.300

Gap

+114.6%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

41.18%

Kd(1-t)

6.70%

D/(D+E)

58.82%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend5.43%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→180.11B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

180.11B

Growth Rate

5.43%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

90.792

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VGG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-2.66

Low Risk

DSRI

0.760

GMI

0.881

AQI

1.016

SGI

1.133

DEPI

1.096

SGAI

0.949

TATA

-0.010

LVGI

0.987

VGG exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.6622, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in revenue recognition and margin quality, which could pose risks to future performance.

Red Flags

Earnings quality margin score of 45.5/100 indicates potential issues with profitability sustainability.
Revenue quality score of 8.8/100 suggests aggressive revenue recognition practices that may not be sustainable.

Positive Signals

Strong accrual score of 95.8/100 indicates that earnings are primarily derived from actual cash flows rather than accounting adjustments.
Institutional ownership is significant at 30.4% from Tập đoàn Dệt May Việt Nam, suggesting a level of confidence from established entities.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholders include a mix of institutional and individual investors, with the largest being an institution holding 30.4%. This concentration may lead to governance risks if decisions favor the interests of major shareholders over minority investors.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor VGG's revenue recognition practices and margin sustainability. It is advisable to conduct further due diligence on the company's financial reporting and consider potential volatility in earnings.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.90

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.19

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

-1.7%

Volatility

23.7%

Max Drawdown

-33.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

4.55P/E

P/B0.83

P/S0.18

ROE19.2%

ROA7.5%

EPS9502.02

BVPS52257.72

Gross Margin10.7%

Net Margin4.0%

D/E1.40

Current Ratio1.35

Rev Growth7.7%

Profit Growth19.4%

EV/EBITDA2.74

Div Yield2.3%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

44.1M

Charter Capital

441.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng

Industry (ICB L3)

Hàng cá nhân

Sub-industry

Hàng May mặc

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VGG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tập đoàn Dệt May Việt Nam

Inst

30.4%

13.4 trieu

Công Ty TNHH MTV Đầu Tư Xuân Hồng

Inst

20.0%

8.8 trieu

South Island Garment Sdn.bhd

Indiv

14.5%

6.4 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Tân Thuận Tiến

Inst

7.5%

3.3 trieu

Tung Shing Sewing Machine Company Limited

Inst

5.0%

2.2 trieu

Phan Văn Kiệt

Indiv

1.6%

704.539

Nguyễn Đình Trường

Indiv

0.8%

367.180

Nguyễn Trâm Anh

Indiv

0.6%

264.510

Trần Minh Công

Indiv

0.5%

242.700

Bùi Văn Tiến

Indiv

0.5%

205.200

Quỹ Đầu tư Lợi Thế Cạnh Tranh Bền Vững SSI

Inst

0.5%

200.000

Vũ Đức Giang

Indiv

0.4%

160.000

Trần Ngọc Phương Dung

Indiv

0.3%

112.200

Lương Mỹ Lan

Indiv

0.2%

82.500

Hồ Ngọc Huy

Indiv

0.2%

66.310

Lê Thị Hồng Yến

Indiv

0.1%

60.900

Quỹ Đầu tư Trái phiếu Bảo Việt

Inst

0.1%

61.500

Quỹ Đầu tư Cổ phiếu Triển vọng Bảo Việt

Inst

0.1%

61.500

Nguyễn Tuấn Phương

Indiv

0.1%

46.100

Board & Management

Phan Văn Kiệt1.6%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Đình Trường0.8%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Nguyễn Trâm Anh0.6%

Kế toán trưởng

Trần Minh Công0.5%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Bùi Văn Tiến0.5%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Vũ Đức Giang0.4%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Hồ Ngọc Huy0.2%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Tùng

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Thạch Thị Phong Huyền

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Trần Thị Ngọc Dung

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

VTI68.3%HTG61.9%HDM60.9%SPB60.7%NDT53.7%PPH50.1%TVT46.9%MGG35.2%HUG35.0%HNI30.4%NJC30.4%VDN30.4%

Computed 12/04/2026