VPS
CyclicalsValuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Valuation Track Record
Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VPS
Earnings Quality
Fiscal year 2025
Financial Forensics
Beneish M-Score · 2025
The Beneish M-Score of -2.2711 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in revenue recognition, which could pose risks in the context of the Vietnamese market's accounting practices.
- Earnings quality score of 0.0/100 for revenue indicates potential issues with revenue recognition.
- GMI of 1.2208 suggests that gross margins are declining, which could signal operational challenges.
- Strong accrual quality score of 95.6/100 indicates that earnings are backed by cash flows.
- Ownership concentration with Tập đoàn Hóa chất Việt Nam holding 51.0% may provide stability and strategic direction.
The high concentration of ownership among a few stakeholders, particularly the state-owned enterprise Tập đoàn Hóa chất Việt Nam, may limit minority shareholders' influence and raise governance concerns.
Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and consider engaging with management regarding transparency. A cautious approach is advised given the elevated risks, particularly in earnings quality.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
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