BMC

Cyclicals

Công ty Cổ phần Khoáng sản Bình Định

Tài nguyên Cơ bản/Khai khoángCT

13.450

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

19.957

Current

13.450

Gap

+48.4%

ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Tài nguyên Cơ bản→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Tài nguyên Cơ bản" maps to the cyclical group

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→32.92B

Fair EV/EBITDA→6.5x

Years of data→7

Valuation

Mid-Cycle EBITDA

32.92B

Fair EV/EBITDA

6.5x

Net Debt

-34.99B

Equity Value

19.957

Years of data→7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — BMC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.80

Low Risk

DSRI

0.504

GMI

1.234

AQI

0.979

SGI

0.614

DEPI

1.015

SGAI

0.929

TATA

0.057

LVGI

0.743

BMC exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.803, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation; however, the Earnings Quality Score of 37.3/100 raises concerns regarding cash conversion and receivables management. The ownership structure suggests significant influence from local government entities, which may introduce additional risks.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 37.3/100, particularly low cash conversion (0.0/100) and receivables management (20.7/100) indicating potential liquidity issues.
The SGI of 0.6139 suggests a declining sales growth rate, which may impact future revenue generation.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.803 is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating a lower risk of earnings manipulation.
High eq_margin score of 100.0/100 suggests strong profitability relative to revenue.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholders include significant local government entities, which may lead to potential conflicts of interest and influence over corporate governance. This concentrated ownership could also affect decision-making processes.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor BMC's cash flow and receivables management while considering the implications of its ownership structure. A cautious approach is recommended, focusing on operational improvements and potential governance changes.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

3/9

Weak

Z-Score

9.42

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-1.66

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-45.6%

Volatility

30.7%

Max Drawdown

-51.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

14.47P/E

P/B0.73

P/S1.39

ROE5.0%

ROA4.6%

EPS929.33

BVPS18390.39

Gross Margin22.3%

Net Margin9.6%

D/E0.06

Current Ratio14.12

Rev Growth-38.6%

Profit Growth-54.9%

EV/EBITDA7.44

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

12.4M

Charter Capital

123.9B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Tài nguyên Cơ bản

Industry (ICB L3)

Khai khoáng

Sub-industry

Khai khoáng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for BMC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Quỹ Đầu tư Phát triển Tỉnh Gia Lai

Inst

24.9%

3.1 trieu

Văn Phòng Tỉnh Ủy Bình Định

Indiv

15.5%

1.9 trieu

Nguyễn Đức Huyện

Indiv

5.4%

668.820

Đoàn Thị Thu Thủy

Indiv

4.8%

592.090

america limited liability company

Inst

2.9%

354.120

Trịnh Thị Xuân

Indiv

1.8%

228.220

nguyen-thi-minh-huyen

Indiv

1.5%

180.000

Lê Anh Vũ

Indiv

0.5%

63.351

Ngô Văn Tổng

Indiv

0.5%

60.000

Huỳnh Ngọc Bích

Indiv

0.3%

34.372

Lê Thị Trúc Mai

Indiv

0.1%

12.600

Board & Management

Lê Anh Vũ0.5%

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Tổng Giám đốc

Huỳnh Ngọc Bích0.3%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Kế toán trưởng

Đỗ Thanh Thao

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thị Hải Vi

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Đinh Thị Thu Hương

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Cao Thái Định

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Lê Trung Hậu

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Cảnh Thịnh

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Hồ Tường Vy

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

BDW51.0%SGN25.0%DBD2 links WCS23.6%DNM22.7%IDV18.0%SZL16.1%BAX16.1%TIP15.3%MTH13.6%ILB12.8%NCT11.0%

Computed 12/04/2026