TMX

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần VICEM Thương mại Xi măng

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

8.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Fairly Valued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

8.524

Current

8.500

Gap

+0.3%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

66.19%

Kd(1-t)

5.72%

D/(D+E)

33.81%

WACC

10.01%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

5.840

50%DCF Value

11.208

Blended Intrinsic

8.524

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TMX

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.61

Low Risk

DSRI

0.834

GMI

1.055

AQI

0.705

SGI

1.011

DEPI

0.826

SGAI

0.730

TATA

0.009

LVGI

0.911

TMX exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.6148, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it falls below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 60.4/100 reflects significant concerns, particularly in revenue recognition and profit margins, which could pose risks to financial stability.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 60.4/100, with a revenue recognition score of 0.0/100 indicating potential issues in revenue reporting.
Low eq_margin score of 12.4/100 suggests that profit margins are under pressure, which could affect overall profitability.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.6148 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, suggesting a degree of financial integrity.
High eq_accrual score of 96.4/100 reflects strong accrual quality, indicating that earnings are likely backed by actual cash flows.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Tổng Công ty Xi măng Việt Nam holding 59.6%, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest, particularly in decision-making processes.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor TMX's revenue recognition practices and margin performance. Consider a cautious approach, potentially waiting for improved earnings quality metrics before making significant investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

5.52

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.02

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+9.2%

Volatility

51.0%

Max Drawdown

-28.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

11.74P/E

P/B0.56

P/S0.10

ROE4.8%

ROA3.2%

EPS724.26

BVPS15214.29

Gross Margin4.5%

Net Margin0.9%

D/E0.46

Current Ratio3.33

Rev Growth0.3%

Profit Growth238.9%

EV/EBITDA4.86

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

6.0M

Charter Capital

60.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TMX — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Xi măng Việt Nam

Inst

59.6%

3.6 trieu

Đỗ Ngọc Thạch

Indiv

10.0%

601.500

Nguyễn Phan Minh Ngọc

Indiv

6.0%

361.400

Phan Văn Tuấn

Indiv

5.3%

316.000

america limited liability company

Inst

4.8%

285.089

Đinh Thúy Ánh

Indiv

2.0%

117.700

Đặng Phúc Tân

Indiv

0.2%

12.300

Phan Thị Tố Oanh

Indiv

0.2%

11.700

Hoàng Văn Tám

Indiv

0.1%

8.700

Nông Tuấn Dũng

Indiv

0.1%

6.000

Board & Management

Phan Thị Tố Oanh0.2%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Thị Hải Ngà

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Hoàng Thị Hải Yến

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Doãn Nam Khánh

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Đặng Thành Công

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Lê Thị Thu Hà

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trịnh Ngọc Thắng

Kế toán trưởng

Bùi Văn Luyện

Giám đốc

Top connections

HT179.7%BTS79.5%BCC73.1%HOM71.1%DXV65.8%VTV62.9%HCT59.6%TXM59.6%HTV59.6%BPC59.6%BXH59.6%BBS59.6%

Computed 12/04/2026