BTS

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Xi măng VICEM Bút Sơn

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

5.100

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

8.321

Current

5.100

Gap

+63.1%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

36.01%

Kd(1-t)

6.40%

D/(D+E)

63.99%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

7.150

50%DCF Value

9.491

Blended Intrinsic

8.321

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — BTS

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.80

Low Risk

DSRI

1.366

GMI

-0.039

AQI

1.286

SGI

1.018

DEPI

0.909

SGAI

0.910

TATA

-0.054

LVGI

0.976

BTS exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of -2.8003, which is significantly below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the company maintains a relatively strong earnings quality score of 64.6/100, indicating some positive aspects in cash conversion and receivables management.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.8003 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation.
DSRI of 1.3658 suggests potential issues with revenue recognition relative to receivables.
Earnings quality metrics show a 0.0/100 score for both eq_margin and eq_revenue, indicating severe concerns with profitability and revenue recognition.

Positive Signals

Earnings Quality Score of 64.6/100 reflects strong cash conversion (100.0/100) and receivables management (100.0/100).
A low SGI of 1.0180 indicates stable sales growth relative to the previous period.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Tổng Công ty Xi măng Việt Nam holding 79.5%, which may limit minority shareholder influence and increase the risk of decisions favoring controlling shareholders over broader stakeholder interests.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor BTS for signs of earnings manipulation and consider a cautious approach to investment, given the elevated risk level. It may be prudent to wait for clearer financial disclosures and improvements in earnings quality metrics before making significant commitments.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

8/9

Strong

Z-Score

0.53

Distress Zone

Sharpe

0.05

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+5.9%

Volatility

18.8%

Max Drawdown

-17.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

19.94P/E

P/B0.57

P/S0.24

ROE2.9%

ROA1.0%

EPS255.74

BVPS8886.43

Gross Margin7.4%

Net Margin1.2%

D/E1.78

Current Ratio0.45

Rev Growth2.5%

Profit Growth115.7%

EV/EBITDA5.71

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

123.6M

Charter Capital

1235.6B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for BTS — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Xi măng Việt Nam

Inst

79.5%

98.2 trieu

Công ty TNHH Chứng khoán ACB

Inst

5.6%

6.9 trieu

Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Á Châu

Inst

5.0%

6.2 trieu

Công ty TNHH Đầu Tư Tài Chính Á Châu Hà Nội

Inst

3.2%

3.9 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Địa Ốc A.c.b

Inst

0.2%

300.000

Board & Management

Lê Thị Khanh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng

Phạm Anh Tuấn

Tổng Giám đốc

Vũ Thế Hà

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Thị Văn

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Thư ký Hội đồng Quản Trị

Nguyễn Thế Hùng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Việt Hồng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Lê Huy Quân

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Nguyễn Minh Tuấn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đỗ Tiến Trình

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Doãn Hữu Phong

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Trần Ngọc Hải

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Đặng Vũ Hải

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

HT12 links BCC79.5%HOM79.5%DXV79.5%VTV79.5%TMX79.5%HCT79.5%TXM79.5%HTV79.5%BPC79.5%BXH79.5%BBS79.5%

Computed 12/04/2026