TXM

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần VICEM Thạch cao Xi Măng

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

4.400

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

10.885

Current

4.400

Gap

+147.4%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

79.23%

Kd(1-t)

6.40%

D/(D+E)

20.77%

WACC

11.00%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

1.287

50%DCF Value

20.484

Blended Intrinsic

10.885

Value Decomposition

39%

61%

Explicit period (39%)Terminal value (61%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TXM

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

2.23

High Risk

DSRI

0.919

GMI

1.596

AQI

11.280

SGI

0.889

DEPI

0.699

SGAI

0.553

TATA

0.052

LVGI

0.610

The Beneish M-Score of 2.2288 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation, significantly exceeding the threshold of -1.78. Coupled with a low earnings quality score of 22.6/100, particularly poor cash conversion metrics, this raises substantial concerns regarding the reliability of TXM's financial statements.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of 2.2288 indicates potential earnings manipulation, well above the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings Quality Score of 22.6/100, with eq_cash_conv at 0.0/100, suggests severe issues with cash flow generation.
eq_receivables at 14.3/100 indicates potential overstatement of revenue or collection issues.

Positive Signals

DSRI of 0.9192 suggests that inventory levels are being managed effectively relative to sales.
SGI of 0.8893 indicates that sales growth is stable, which could be a positive sign in a volatile market.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Tổng Công ty Xi măng Việt Nam holding 51.2%, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest. This concentration could hinder minority shareholder rights and transparency.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and consider conducting further due diligence on TXM's financial practices. It may be prudent to monitor for signs of improved cash flow and earnings quality before making any investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

3.07

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.11

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-4.3%

Volatility

59.7%

Max Drawdown

-22.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

55.53P/E

P/B0.28

P/S0.15

ROE0.5%

ROA0.4%

EPS79.23

BVPS15810.37

Gross Margin7.0%

Net Margin0.3%

D/E0.26

Current Ratio4.80

Rev Growth-11.1%

Profit Growth173.5%

EV/EBITDA47.10

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

7.0M

Charter Capital

70.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TXM — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Xi măng Việt Nam

Inst

51.2%

3.6 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Xi măng VICEM Hà Tiên

Inst

10.0%

700.000

Trịnh Ngọc Thắng

Indiv

4.2%

294.525

Hoàng Việt

Indiv

0.7%

48.000

afc vietnam fund

Inst

0.3%

23.600

Đặng Quang Hạnh

Indiv

0.2%

17.400

Board & Management

Lê Văn Vinh

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Phó Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thanh Phúc

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Hoàng Băng Châu

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Tử Thanh

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Hoàng Trí

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đào Tuấn Khôi

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Xuân Trung

Kế toán trưởng

Tạ Hữu Hiển

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Thanh Bình

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Trần Nguyễn Huy Hùng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

HT179.7%BTS79.5%BCC73.1%HOM71.1%DXV65.8%VTV62.9%TMX59.6%PPE55.5%HCT53.9%HTV2 links BPC51.2%BXH51.2%

Computed 12/04/2026