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Consumer sector

DPH

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Dược phẩm Hải Phòng
Y tế/Dược phẩmCT
57.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
103.875
Current
57.000
Gap
+82.2%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTY tếConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Y tế" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
81.06%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.37%
x
D/(D+E)
18.94%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend2.16%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF17.57B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
17.57B
Growth Rate
2.16%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
103.875
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — DPH

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

68
Fair
Accrual Quality
94
Cash Conversion
66
Receivables
66
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2019

-2.68
Low Risk
DSRI
1.120
GMI
1.119
AQI
0.231
SGI
1.179
DEPI
0.000
SGAI
0.932
TATA
-0.023
LVGI
1.036

DPH exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.6826, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the high DSRI and SGI suggest potential concerns with revenue growth and inventory management, which warrant careful monitoring.

Red Flags
  • DSRI of 1.1202 indicates a potential increase in receivables relative to sales, suggesting possible revenue recognition issues.
  • SGI of 1.1792 suggests that sales growth is outpacing the industry average, which could be unsustainable.
Positive Signals
  • Earnings Quality Score of 80.1/100 indicates strong overall earnings quality, particularly with cash conversion metrics at 100.0/100.
  • The low DEPI of 0.0000 suggests that there are no significant depreciation-related concerns affecting earnings.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Trần Văn Huyến holding 57.7%, which could lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue growth and inventory management metrics while considering the strong earnings quality. A cautious approach is advised, potentially waiting for clearer signals before making significant investments.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
4.36
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.03
Positive
Composite
55
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
-15.5%
Volatility
67.2%
Max Drawdown
-34.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024
5.26P/E
P/B0.56
P/S0.71
ROE11.1%
ROA9.1%
EPS8189.77
BVPS77041.66
Gross Margin28.4%
Net Margin13.5%
D/E0.22
Current Ratio5.28
Rev Growth-2.6%
Profit Growth-5.3%
EV/EBITDA4.78
Div Yield3.9%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
3.0M
Charter Capital
30.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Y tế
Industry (ICB L3)
Dược phẩm
Sub-industry
Dược phẩm
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for DPH — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Trần Văn Huyến
Indiv
57.7%
1.7 trieu
Công ty TNHH Dược Hải Phòng
Inst
11.7%
350.000
Lê Ngọc Đức
Indiv
6.5%
194.439
Nguyễn Văn Vẻ
Indiv
2.7%
80.729
Trần Thị Oanh
Indiv
2.0%
60.000
Nguyễn Thị Phương Hoa
Indiv
1.8%
53.471
nguyen-thi-huong
Indiv
1.3%
37.495
VŨ PHÚ ĐỊNH
Indiv
1.0%
28.884
Trần Đức Hạnh
Indiv
0.5%
15.000
Nguyễn Xuân Trường
Indiv
0.2%
4.829
Board & Management
Trần Văn Huyến57.7%
Tổng Giám đốc/Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Văn Vẻ2.7%
Phó Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Hường1.3%
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
VŨ PHÚ ĐỊNH1.0%
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Trần Đức Hạnh0.5%
Phó Giám đốc/Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Xuân Trường0.2%
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Anh Tuấn
Kế toán trưởng/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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