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Utilities sector

HFC

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Xăng dầu HFC
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
7.700
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
11.314
Current
7.700
Gap
+46.9%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default2.00%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS600
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
600
Base Growth
2.00%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
11.314
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HFC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

54
Fair
Accrual Quality
72
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-3.17
Low Risk
DSRI
0.753
GMI
0.733
AQI
1.095
SGI
1.012
DEPI
1.118
SGAI
1.498
TATA
-0.071
LVGI
0.897

HFC's Beneish M-Score of -3.168 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 54.3/100, particularly the zero scores in revenue and margin quality, raises concerns about the sustainability of earnings.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 54.3/100, with 0.0/100 in both eq_margin and eq_revenue, indicating potential issues in revenue recognition and profit margins.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -3.168 suggests low likelihood of earnings manipulation, which is a positive signal for investor confidence.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is relatively concentrated, with the top five shareholders holding over 48% of shares, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor HFC's earnings quality metrics and consider a cautious approach, focusing on operational performance and revenue generation before making significant investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
8.14
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.13
Negative
Composite
48
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-8.0%
Volatility
164.4%
Max Drawdown
-55.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024
11.02P/E
P/B1.17
P/S0.05
ROE11.0%
ROA3.2%
EPS907.13
BVPS8529.84
Gross Margin5.7%
Net Margin0.5%
D/E2.04
Current Ratio1.15
Rev Growth1.4%
Profit Growth204.0%
EV/EBITDA8.72
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
10.2M
Charter Capital
102.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Phân phối xăng dầu & khí đốt
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HFC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Nguyễn Hữu Yên
Indiv
13.6%
1.4 trieu
Công ty Xăng dầu Khu vực I - Công ty TNHH MTV
Inst
12.2%
1.2 trieu
Doãn Đức Liêm
Indiv
9.8%
1.0 trieu
Nguyễn Phi Thái
Indiv
9.1%
929.732
Công ty TNHH Giao Nhận Vận Tải Bình Minh
Inst
4.0%
411.524
nguyen-anh-tuan
Indiv
3.7%
375.905
nguyen-anh-toan
Indiv
3.6%
366.806
Nguyễn Thị Trung Hòa
Indiv
2.7%
274.215
Phan Thị Thùy Dương
Indiv
0.8%
52.207
nguyen-phuong-mai
Indiv
0.6%
11.900
Phạm Thị Liên Hương
Indiv
0.5%
43.536
Nguyễn Thành Thiên
Indiv
0.2%
4.200
Đoàn Thị Ngọc Lan
Indiv
0.1%
2.400
Nguyễn Công Mạnh Hùng
Indiv
0.1%
7.411
Board & Management
Nguyễn Hữu Yên13.6%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Hữu Yên13.6%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Phi Thái9.1%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Thị Liên Hương0.5%
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát/Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Thanh Bình
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
An Thị Ngọc Lan
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Đình Quý
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Trọng Hậu
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
ĐẬU NGỌC NHÂN
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Bá Hóa
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
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