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Utilities sector

GSM

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Thủy điện Hương Sơn
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Sản xuất & Phân phối ĐiệnCT
29.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
38.057
Current
29.000
Gap
+31.2%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend2.25%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS2.000
Payout ratio77.9%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
2.000
Base Growth
2.25%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
38.057
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — GSM

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

62
Fair
Accrual Quality
82
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
29
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-2.22
Moderate
DSRI
1.415
GMI
0.762
AQI
0.035
SGI
1.260
DEPI
1.520
SGAI
0.679
TATA
0.013
LVGI
1.042

GSM exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.2216, which is below the manipulation threshold. However, the company's earnings quality score of 43.6 suggests some strengths in cash conversion and accruals, albeit with significant weaknesses in revenue recognition.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.2216 indicates potential earnings manipulation, significantly below the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings quality metrics show an eq_receivables score of only 12.6/100, indicating potential issues with revenue recognition.
Positive Signals
  • High eq_accrual score of 94.9/100 suggests strong accrual management.
  • SGI of 1.2600 indicates potential for revenue growth, although it must be monitored closely.
Ownership Risk

The top shareholders are predominantly institutional, which may provide some stability; however, the concentration of ownership (over 27% held by the largest institution) could lead to governance risks.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor GSM's financial disclosures and consider a cautious approach due to elevated risks of earnings manipulation, while also keeping an eye on revenue growth potential.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
8/9
Strong
Z-Score
4.22
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.36
Positive
Composite
65
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+20.5%
Volatility
23.8%
Max Drawdown
-19.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
7.37P/E
P/B1.49
P/S3.65
ROE21.2%
ROA15.1%
EPS3993.95
BVPS19808.66
Gross Margin60.8%
Net Margin49.5%
D/E0.32
Current Ratio4.00
Rev Growth47.0%
Profit Growth63.9%
EV/EBITDA5.47
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
28.6M
Charter Capital
285.6B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Sub-industry
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for GSM — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ phần Dịch vụ Khách sạn Kim Thành
Inst
27.4%
7.8 trieu
Tổng Công ty Khoáng sản và Thương mại Hà Tĩnh
Inst
19.8%
5.6 trieu
Nguyễn Thị Linh Giang
Indiv
10.2%
2.9 trieu
Trần Thị Kim Thoa
Indiv
10.0%
2.9 trieu
Công ty TNHH Đại Hiệp
Inst
10.0%
2.9 trieu
nguyen-thi-minh
Indiv
6.1%
1.7 trieu
Tổng Công ty Sông Đà
Inst
2.5%
720.050
Nguyễn Thị Diệu Thúy
Indiv
0.4%
103.600
Board & Management
Trần Thị Kim Thoa10.0%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Minh6.1%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Diệu Thúy0.4%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thanh Hải
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thế Tuấn
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lê Hồng Sơn
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Bùi Văn Minh
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Phạm Tiến Dũng
Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Đình Toàn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Văn Hiệp
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Huy Tuấn
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Bá Thiên
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
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