TVT

Consumer

Tổng Công ty Việt Thắng - CTCP

Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng/Hàng cá nhânCT

15.550

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

132.550

Current

15.550

Gap

+500.0%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

42.37%

Kd(1-t)

5.57%

D/(D+E)

57.63%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.86%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→170.86B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

170.86B

Growth Rate

3.86%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

132.550

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TVT

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-3.00

Low Risk

DSRI

1.260

GMI

0.870

AQI

0.731

SGI

0.939

DEPI

1.231

SGAI

1.140

TATA

-0.116

LVGI

0.966

The Beneish M-Score of -3.0021 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 42.1/100, particularly low scores in receivables and revenue metrics, suggest potential concerns regarding the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 42.1/100, indicating significant issues in revenue recognition and margin quality.
Receivables score of 14.8/100, suggesting poor management of accounts receivable which could lead to cash flow issues.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -3.0021, indicating a low risk of earnings manipulation.
Cash conversion score of 100.0/100, highlighting strong cash generation relative to earnings.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with the top shareholder, Tập đoàn Dệt May Việt Nam, holding 46.9%. This concentration could lead to governance risks, as decisions may favor the interests of a few over minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow and receivables management while considering a cautious approach to investment due to the elevated risk profile. Engaging with management on earnings quality and transparency could provide further insights.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

2.15

Grey Zone

Sharpe

0.03

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+6.4%

Volatility

32.1%

Max Drawdown

-23.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

8.44P/E

P/B0.65

P/S0.21

ROE7.8%

ROA3.1%

EPS1919.98

BVPS24968.28

Gross Margin14.0%

Net Margin2.5%

D/E1.25

Current Ratio1.39

Rev Growth-6.1%

Profit Growth69.7%

EV/EBITDA3.89

Div Yield3.1%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

21.0M

Charter Capital

210.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng

Industry (ICB L3)

Hàng cá nhân

Sub-industry

Hàng May mặc

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TVT — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tập đoàn Dệt May Việt Nam

Inst

46.9%

9.9 trieu

Công ty TNHH Denim Tường Long

Inst

7.9%

1.7 trieu

Nguyễn Đức Khiêm

Indiv

7.0%

1.5 trieu

Tổng Công ty May Nhà Bè - Công ty Cổ phần

State

2.6%

533.710

Công ty TNHH Việt Thắng - Luch I

Inst

1.9%

400.000

Nguyễn Hữu Phú

Indiv

1.1%

229.320

Dương Thị Lan Dung

Indiv

1.1%

225.000

Công Đoàn Tổng Công ty Việt Thắng - Ctcp

State

0.6%

124.830

Lê Thiết Hùng

Indiv

0.5%

98.155

Trần Thị Thanh Phượng

Indiv

0.3%

68.000

Nguyễn Quang Minh

Indiv

0.2%

51.000

Nguyễn Đức Trình

Indiv

0.2%

33.100

Lê Nguyên Ngọc

Indiv

0.1%

23.560

Nguyễn Mộng Ngọc Quỳnh

Indiv

0.1%

20.000

Lê Thiết Bảo

Indiv

0.1%

20.000

Board & Management

Nguyễn Đức Khiêm7.0%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Hữu Phú1.1%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Thị Thanh Phượng0.3%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Quang Minh0.2%

Tổng Giám đốc

Lê Nguyên Ngọc0.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Đức Lợi

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Phi Hùng

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Vũ Thị Thùy Dương

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Đào Thị Nội

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Diều Chí Hảo

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Diệp Quốc Bình

Kế toán trưởng

Phạm Minh Tuấn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

VTI68.3%HTG61.9%HDM60.9%SPB60.7%NDT53.7%PPH50.1%MGG46.9%HUG46.9%VGG46.9%HNI46.9%NJC46.9%VDN46.9%

Computed 12/04/2026