Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 25.900
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 28.281
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 3 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 51.1%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Cyclicals peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.1525th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 4.1%63rd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.5915 (77th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.32, indicating accounting measures are more aggressive than most local peers and have moved toward greater aggressiveness this year. Earnings-quality metrics show particularly weak cash conversion (0.15 three-year operating cash / net profit; cash-conversion score 2.6/100) and low revenue quality (24.6/100), while Piotroski and Altman scores point to generally sound fundamentals (F-Score 7/9) but a middling bankruptcy-distance (Z-Score 2.45, “grey zone”).
- M-Score -1.5915 (Beneish) — measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight ratios; this is above the US -1.78 cutoff and sits at the 77th percentile among Vietnamese non-financial peers, indicating more aggressive accounting than most local peers.
- Year-over-year M-Score change +0.32 — measures the trajectory of the M-Score; the positive change shows accounting metrics moved toward greater aggressiveness compared with the prior year.
- Earnings-quality: Cash conversion 0.15 (three-year operating cash flow / net profit) — in the 25th percentile versus Vietnamese peers and scored 2.6/100, indicating net profit has converted poorly into operating cash over three years.
- Revenue quality 24.6/100 — this measures the quality and persistence of reported revenue; a low score suggests revenue may be less cash-backed or less sustainable.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) 1.3037 — part of the Beneish inputs; >1 implies an increase in non-current or other illiquid assets (e.g., capitalized costs, long-term receivables) relative to assets, which can signal more discretionary capitalization.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) 0.1257 — measures accruals; a positive, material value indicates reported earnings include accrual-based components rather than cash, consistent with the weak cash-conversion signal.
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9 — measures nine indicators of profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency; a 7 suggests relatively strong underlying accounting fundamentals.
- Altman Z-Score 2.45 — the company sits in the ‘grey zone’ for bankruptcy distance (not in immediate distress), which is neutral-to-modestly positive on solvency.
- Beneish components showing supporting operating improvement: GMI (Gross Margin Index) 0.9797 (<1) — measures gross margin deterioration/improvement; <1 indicates gross margins improved year-on-year; SGAI (Sales, General & Admin Index) 0.8996 (<1) — SG&A declined relative to sales; LVGI (Leverage Index) 0.8850 (<1) — leverage fell relative to prior year. These reduce M-Score pressure from operating deterioration.
- Receivables quality 70.3/100 and receivables outside the trade cycle at 4.1% of total assets (62nd percentile) — the level is moderate and the receivables-quality score is comparatively stronger than cash conversion, suggesting receivables are not an extreme outlier among peers.
Ownership is concentrated: Tập đoàn Dệt May Việt Nam holds 50.1%, with two other institutions at 8.6% each and two individuals holding 3.4% and 1.3%. The majority stake by a large institutional shareholder (Tập đoàn Dệt May Việt Nam) means control is concentrated in a single group; this can be associated with group and related-party transactions common in Vietnamese listed companies.
- Compare the three-year operating-cash-flow to net-profit schedule in the cash-flow statement and the auditor’s note to understand drivers of the 0.15 cash-conversion ratio (look for one-off items, timing differences, or non-cash gains).
- Inspect the notes on receivables, prepayments and 'other long-term receivables' to find the components behind the 4.1% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle (e.g., prepayments to suppliers, loans to related parties, long-term receivables).
- Review the related-party transactions and balances note for group companies (including transactions with Tập đoàn Dệt May Việt Nam and the two institutional investors) to see if intercompany receivables, prepayments or financing explain the elevated AQI (1.3037) or TATA (0.1257).
- Read the auditor’s report and the accounting-policy and significant-judgements notes for accruals, impairment and revenue recognition policies to assess whether revenue quality (24.6/100) and accrual levels are supported by conservative or aggressive VAS treatments.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.00
- P/S
- 0.84
- ROE
- 23.9%
- ROA
- 12.9%
- EPS
- 6.254
- BVPS
- 27.688
- Gross Margin
- 19.6%
- Net Margin
- 19.3%
- D/E
- 0.42
- Current Ratio
- 1.30
- Rev Growth
- +9.8%
- Profit Growth
- +21.0%
- EV/EBITDA
- 8.79
- Div Yield
- 12.3%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 78.4M
- Charter Capital
- 784B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hàng cá nhân
- Sub-industry
- Hàng May mặc
- Company Type
- CT