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Consumer sector

TLG

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Thiên Long
Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng/Hàng gia dụngCT
48.850
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
22.057
Current
48.850
Gap
-54.9%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng cá nhân & Gia dụngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
70.97%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.28%
x
D/(D+E)
29.03%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend7.57%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF108.92B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
108.92B
Growth Rate
7.57%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
22.057
Value Decomposition
42%
58%
Explicit period (42%)Terminal value (58%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TLG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

52
Fair
Accrual Quality
74
Cash Conversion
39
Receivables
37
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
6

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.80
Moderate
DSRI
1.112
GMI
0.899
AQI
1.633
SGI
1.111
DEPI
1.012
SGAI
1.254
TATA
0.065
LVGI
0.964

TLG exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, with a Beneish M-Score of -1.8043, which is above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. Additionally, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in cash conversion and receivables management.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -1.8043 indicates potential earnings manipulation, exceeding the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 51.6/100 suggests moderate quality, but specific metrics like eq_cash_conv at 39.1/100 and eq_receivables at 37.1/100 highlight serious concerns in cash flow and receivables management.
Positive Signals
  • DSRI of 1.1117 indicates that inventory growth is slightly above sales growth, which could suggest reasonable inventory management.
  • High eq_margin score of 100.0/100 indicates strong profit margins, reflecting potential operational efficiency.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows significant concentration with the top shareholder holding 46.8%, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest. This concentration can impact minority shareholders' rights and influence management decisions.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor TLG's financial disclosures and operational performance. It may be prudent to wait for improved earnings quality metrics and a more transparent governance structure before considering an investment.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
5.40
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.27
Negative
Composite
34
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-1.9%
Volatility
34.6%
Max Drawdown
-34.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
10.45P/E
P/B1.86
P/S1.13
ROE18.5%
ROA13.0%
EPS4675.20
BVPS26200.59
Gross Margin49.6%
Net Margin10.8%
D/E0.41
Current Ratio2.74
Rev Growth11.0%
Profit Growth-2.2%
EV/EBITDA7.89
Div Yield7.2%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
96.5M
Charter Capital
965.3B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
Industry (ICB L3)
Hàng gia dụng
Sub-industry
Đồ gia dụng một lần
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TLG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Thiên Long An Thịnh
Inst
46.8%
45.2 trieu
Cô Gia Thọ
Indiv
6.6%
6.3 trieu
Nwl Cayman Holdings Ltd.
Inst
4.5%
3.5 trieu
Vietnam Holding Ltd
Inst
4.3%
1.6 trieu
KITMC Worldwide Vietnam RSP Balanced Fund
Inst
2.9%
2.5 trieu
Trần Thái Như
Indiv
1.4%
1.3 trieu
Cô Ngân Bình
Indiv
1.2%
1.2 trieu
tmam vietnam equity mother fund
Inst
1.2%
1.0 trieu
Cô Cẩm Nguyệt
Indiv
1.0%
1.0 trieu
Phan Nhựt Phương
Indiv
0.8%
751.513
nguyen-dinh-tam
Indiv
0.6%
607.082
Trần Phương Nga
Indiv
0.5%
507.623
Cô Cẩm Ngọc
Indiv
0.4%
419.916
Trần Văn Hùng
Indiv
0.4%
325.416
Cô Gia Đức
Indiv
0.2%
234.239
Nguyễn Thị Lệ Trinh
Indiv
0.2%
219.421
Kim Investment Funds - Kim Vietnam Growth Fund
Inst
0.2%
190.650
KIM Vietnam Growth Equity Fund
Inst
0.2%
174.000
Nguyễn Thượng Việt
Indiv
0.2%
152.425
Trần Trung Hiệp
Indiv
0.1%
126.830
Trương Anh Hào
Indiv
0.1%
102.291
Trần Lệ Nguyên
Indiv
0.1%
92.900
Huỳnh Văn Thiện
Indiv
0.1%
92.900
Bùi Văn Huống
Indiv
0.1%
105.449
Nguyễn Thị Bích Ngà
Indiv
0.1%
83.542
Board & Management
Cô Gia Thọ6.6%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Thái Như1.4%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Cô Ngân Bình1.2%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Cô Cẩm Nguyệt1.0%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phan Nhựt Phương0.8%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc Khối mua hàng
Nguyễn Đình Tâm0.6%
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Phương Nga0.5%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc Tài chính - Kế toán/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Huỳnh Văn Thiện0.1%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Bùi Văn Huống0.1%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc Hành chính nhân sự
Trần Lệ Nguyên0.1%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Nguyễn Thị Bích Ngà0.1%
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Ngọc Nhơn
Kế toán trưởng
Đào Thị Thanh Bình
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Võ Thị Hải Hà
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phạm Nguyên Tri
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trịnh Văn Hào
Giám đốc
Đinh Quang Hùng
Giám đốc Sản xuất
Phạm Hữu Chí
Giám đốc Nghiên cứu
Huỳnh Ngọc Bảo Thi
Giám đốc Công nghệ
Teo Hwee Beng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Đinh Đức Hậu
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Tạ Hồng Diệp
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Mang Viên Ngân
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Tayfun Uner
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Phan Thị Minh Hiếu
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Ngọc Trung Chánh
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Computed 12/04/2026
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