HTN

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Hưng Thịnh Incons

Bất động sảnCT

6.780

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

High

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

5.368

Current

6.780

Gap

-20.8%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

20.14%

Kd(1-t)

6.31%

D/(D+E)

79.86%

WACC

10.00%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

10.735

60%DCF Value

-11.343

Blended Intrinsic

5.368

Value Decomposition

33%

67%

Explicit period (33%)Terminal value (67%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HTN

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

100

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.32

Moderate

DSRI

1.703

GMI

1.036

AQI

1.222

SGI

0.553

DEPI

0.984

SGAI

1.860

TATA

-0.011

LVGI

0.987

HTN exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.322, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation; however, several components signal potential risks, particularly the high SGAI of 1.8596. The earnings quality score of 76.1 suggests reasonable performance, but the zero score in receivables raises concerns about revenue recognition practices.

Red Flags

SGAI at 1.8596 indicates excessive selling, which may suggest aggressive revenue recognition practices.
DSRI at 1.7026 suggests a significant increase in inventory relative to sales, potentially indicating overproduction or unsold goods.

Positive Signals

Earnings Quality Score of 76.1/100 reflects strong cash conversion (100.0/100) and revenue quality (100.0/100), indicating solid operational performance.
Beneish M-Score of -2.322 is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting a lower risk of earnings manipulation.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholders include significant institutional ownership (31.3% combined), which may provide stability; however, the high concentration of individual ownership (16.8% and 4.7%) could lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Monitor the company's inventory levels closely and assess the sustainability of revenue recognition practices. Consider a cautious investment approach, focusing on further analysis of operational metrics and governance structures.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

0.59

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.86

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

-18.6%

Volatility

27.2%

Max Drawdown

-46.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

36.32P/E

P/B0.44

P/S1.06

ROE1.2%

ROA0.2%

EPS206.48

BVPS17176.26

Gross Margin6.8%

Net Margin2.9%

D/E3.72

Current Ratio1.41

Rev Growth-44.7%

Profit Growth-27.2%

EV/EBITDA111.78

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

89.1M

Charter Capital

891.2B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HTN — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ Phần Tập Đoàn Hưng Thịnh

Inst

18.4%

16.4 trieu

nguyen-dinh-trung

Indiv

16.8%

15.0 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Hưng Thịnh Investment

Inst

12.9%

11.5 trieu

america limited liability company

Inst

5.1%

1.7 trieu

Trần Tựu

Indiv

4.7%

1.3 trieu

Trần Thục Oanh

Indiv

4.4%

3.9 trieu

Lê Hồng Việt

Indiv

0.3%

148.780

Nguyễn Văn Cường

Indiv

0.3%

148.780

Nguyễn Anh Dũng

Indiv

0.2%

160.682

Nguyễn Thế Hưng

Indiv

0.1%

107.121

Board & Management

Nguyễn Đình Trung16.8%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Hồng Việt0.3%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Văn Cường0.3%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Kim Hải

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Ngô Huy Hiệu

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

HUỲNH THANH TỨ

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Võ Văn Thư

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Hải Phong

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Loan Anh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Lê Xuân

Giám đốc Tài chính/Kế toán trưởng

Trương Văn Việt

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Khuất Tùng Phong

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Trần Tiến Thanh

Tổng Giám đốc

Lê Quỳnh Mai

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Hồ Minh Hoàng

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

SGN25.0%WCS23.6%DNM22.7%IDV18.0%PVL16.8%SZL16.1%BAX16.1%TIP15.3%MTH13.6%ILB12.8%NCT11.0%CCV9.6%

Computed 12/04/2026