LTG

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Lộc Trời

Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT

6.400

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

22.352

Current

6.400

Gap

+249.3%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

36.10%

Kd(1-t)

4.38%

D/(D+E)

63.90%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend8.09%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→411.64B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

411.64B

Growth Rate

8.09%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

22.352

Value Decomposition

42%

58%

Explicit period (42%)Terminal value (58%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — LTG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2023

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2023

-0.56

High Risk

DSRI

1.553

GMI

1.194

AQI

0.545

SGI

1.376

DEPI

0.888

SGAI

0.917

TATA

0.258

LVGI

1.146

LTG exhibits several concerning indicators of earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of -0.5561, which is above the manipulation threshold. Additionally, the company's earnings quality score of 14.3/100 highlights significant weaknesses in cash conversion and receivables management, raising concerns about the reliability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -0.5561 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is above the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings Quality Score of 14.3/100, with a cash conversion score of 0.0/100, suggests severe issues in converting earnings into actual cash flow.

Positive Signals

Revenue quality score of 63.7/100 indicates that while revenue recognition may be high, it is not fully supported by cash flow.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated, with the top three shareholders holding over 73% of shares, which may lead to governance risks and reduced accountability. The presence of state ownership (24.2%) could imply potential political influence over financial reporting.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence on LTG's financial practices, particularly regarding cash flow management and earnings quality. Monitoring future earnings reports and cash flow statements will be crucial to assess any improvements or further deterioration.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.86

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-2.54

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-71.2%

Volatility

77.8%

Max Drawdown

-78.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2023

45.32P/E

P/B0.25

P/S0.05

ROE0.5%

ROA0.2%

EPS167.70

BVPS30355.18

Gross Margin15.4%

Net Margin0.1%

D/E2.74

Current Ratio1.12

Rev Growth38.9%

Profit Growth-95.9%

EV/EBITDA6.01

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

100.7M

Charter Capital

1007.4B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Thực phẩm và đồ uống

Industry (ICB L3)

Sản xuất thực phẩm

Sub-industry

Nuôi trồng nông & hải sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for LTG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Marina Viet Pte. Ltd

Inst

25.2%

20.3 trieu

Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh An Giang

State

24.2%

24.3 trieu

Công Ty TNHH VinaCapital Corporate Finance Việt Nam

Inst

23.5%

Epsom Limited

Inst

10.8%

Mekong Capital Ltd

Inst

6.3%

Augusta Viet Pte. Ltd

Inst

5.7%

4.6 trieu

Luminous Vietnam and Indochina Growth Fund

Inst

5.0%

4.0 trieu

Huỳnh Văn Thòn

Indiv

3.2%

3.2 trieu

Endurance Capital Vietnam I Ltd

Inst

3.0%

3.0 trieu

Endurance Capital Vietnam II S.A. SICAV-RAIF

Inst

2.0%

2.0 trieu

Vietnam Azalea Fund Limited

Inst

1.5%

1.0 trieu

Nguyễn Tiến Tùng

Indiv

0.4%

288.960

Trần Tiến Dũng

Indiv

0.3%

212.040

Nguyễn Thị Ấm

Indiv

0.2%

246.047

Board & Management

Huỳnh Văn Thòn3.2%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Tiến Tùng0.4%

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Nguyễn Thị Ấm0.2%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Tấn Hoàng

Kế toán trưởng

Thuy Vu Dropsey

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Khánh Dư

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Vũ Hồng Trang

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Tiêu Phước Thạnh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phillipp Rosler

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Trần Thanh Hải

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Nguyễn Duy Thuận

Tổng Giám đốc

Top connections

DNA87.7%DHG23.5%HSG10.8%DIG10.8%VSC10.8%VHH7.6%CTI6.2%NTL5.1%DHC5.0%ITD5.0%ITC5.0%FDC4.4%

Computed 12/04/2026