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Consumer sector

SMB

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Bia Sài Gòn - Miền Trung
Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Bia và đồ uốngCT
39.300
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Medium
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
106.787
Current
39.300
Gap
+171.7%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTThực phẩm và đồ uốngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
58.86%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.35%
x
D/(D+E)
41.14%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend3.71%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF173.48B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
173.48B
Growth Rate
3.71%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
106.787
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SMB

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

67
Fair
Accrual Quality
80
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
36
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.68
Low Risk
DSRI
1.174
GMI
0.887
AQI
1.026
SGI
0.944
DEPI
0.964
SGAI
1.215
TATA
-0.051
LVGI
0.942

SMB exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.6778, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in receivables and revenue recognition, which could pose risks to financial stability.

Red Flags
  • The receivables quality score is alarmingly low at 36.2/100, suggesting potential issues with revenue collection.
  • The revenue quality score is 0.0/100, indicating that revenue recognition practices may be highly questionable.
Positive Signals
  • The earnings quality score of 67.2/100 and cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicate strong cash flow management.
  • The DSRI of 1.1744 is above 1, but not excessively high, suggesting that inventory levels are manageable relative to sales.
Ownership Risk

The top shareholder, Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước Giải khát Sài Gòn, holds a significant 32.2% stake, which may lead to potential conflicts of interest and governance concerns.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor SMB's receivables and revenue recognition practices while considering a cautious approach to investment due to elevated risks.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
4.32
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.22
Positive
Composite
71
Strong
Price Risk
Momentum
+10.2%
Volatility
10.8%
Max Drawdown
-9.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
6.63P/E
P/B1.87
P/S0.86
ROE28.8%
ROA17.0%
EPS5925.35
BVPS21037.90
Gross Margin31.5%
Net Margin13.0%
D/E0.66
Current Ratio1.71
Rev Growth-5.6%
Profit Growth-0.9%
EV/EBITDA3.81
Div Yield10.2%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
29.8M
Charter Capital
298.5B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Bia và đồ uống
Sub-industry
Sản xuất bia
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SMB — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước Giải khát Sài Gòn
Inst
32.2%
9.6 trieu
Công ty Cổ Phần Thương Mại Địa Ốc Việt
Inst
12.5%
3.7 trieu
Công ty TNHH MTV Xổ số Kiến thiết Phú Yên
Inst
5.4%
1.6 trieu
Capital Shine Limited
Inst
5.3%
1.6 trieu
Công Ty TNHH Đầutư Kinh Doanh Bất Động Sản Việt Gia Phú
Inst
3.1%
918.227
Huỳnh Văn Dũng
Indiv
1.4%
412.495
Trần Thị Kim Phượng
Indiv
0.7%
221.751
Hoàng Thanh Việt
Indiv
0.3%
77.334
Nguyễn Ngọc Triêm
Indiv
0.2%
68.864
Lê Thị Ngọc Anh
Indiv
0.2%
60.464
Võ Ngọc Anh
Indiv
0.2%
58.263
Huỳnh Quỳnh Nhi
Indiv
0.2%
53.050
Vũ Tuấn Anh
Indiv
0.1%
38.367
Trịnh Thị Tuyết Minh
Indiv
0.1%
32.277
Board & Management
Huỳnh Văn Dũng1.4%
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Võ Thành Điền0.1%
Giám đốc Kinh doanh
Vũ Tuấn Anh0.1%
Giám đốc Tài chính/Kế toán trưởng
Lâm Du An
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Văn Dũng
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Trịnh Văn Thảo
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Bùi Quang Đáng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Phước
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Hữu Phú
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Nguyễn Thị Thùy Linh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Văn Phong
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
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