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Consumer sector

STD

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Nước giải khát Sài Gòn - Tây Đô
Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Bia và đồ uốngCT
7.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
966
Current
7.000
Gap
-86.2%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTThực phẩm và đồ uốngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
67.39%
+
Kd(1-t)
4.65%
x
D/(D+E)
32.61%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF5.65B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
5.65B
Growth Rate
4.00%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
966
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

22
Poor
Accrual Quality
80
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
10

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

0.27
High Risk
DSRI
1.246
GMI
1.307
AQI
7.290
SGI
1.030
DEPI
0.879
SGAI
0.971
TATA
-0.032
LVGI
1.150

The Beneish M-Score of 0.2705 suggests a moderate likelihood of earnings manipulation, particularly with a DSRI of 1.2459 indicating potential issues with inventory management. Additionally, the earnings quality score of 49.1/100 reflects significant weaknesses in revenue recognition and margin quality, which could raise concerns among investors.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of 0.2705 indicates potential manipulation risks as it exceeds the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 49.1/100, with eq_receivables and eq_revenue both at 0.0/100, suggests serious issues with revenue recognition.
Positive Signals
  • High eq_cash_conv score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash conversion efficiency.
  • Ownership by institutional investors such as Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước Giải khát Sài Gòn (14.4%) and Capital Shine Limited (11.6%) may provide stability and oversight.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows a concentration of shares among a few institutional investors, which could lead to potential conflicts of interest and limit minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should conduct further due diligence, particularly on revenue recognition practices, and consider monitoring upcoming financial disclosures closely to assess any improvements in earnings quality.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
2/9
Weak
Z-Score
2.08
Grey Zone

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
71.08P/E
P/B0.59
P/S0.64
ROE0.8%
ROA0.6%
EPS115.23
BVPS13812.24
Gross Margin5.7%
Net Margin0.9%
D/E0.43
Current Ratio2.62
Rev Growth-21.2%
Profit Growth-49.7%
EV/EBITDA14.01
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
20.0M
Charter Capital
200.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Bia và đồ uống
Sub-industry
Sản xuất bia
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for STD — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước Giải khát Sài Gòn
Inst
14.4%
2.9 trieu
Capital Shine Limited
Inst
11.6%
2.3 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Bia Sài Gòn - Miền Tây
Inst
9.5%
1.9 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Nước giải khát Chương Dương
Inst
5.5%
1.1 trieu
nguyen-thi-hanh
Indiv
3.5%
693.038
Văn Thảo Nguyên
Indiv
1.4%
280.961
Nguyễn Thị Minh Tâm
Indiv
0.7%
138.665
Trần Xuân Tộ
Indiv
0.7%
129.672
Văn Bảo Ngọc
Indiv
0.5%
108.943
Phan Duy Linh
Indiv
0.2%
32.456
Mai Thị Bạch Yến
Indiv
0.1%
25.789
Trần Công Toại
Indiv
0.1%
21.903
Board & Management
Lê Hồng Xanh3.3%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Xuân Tộ0.7%
Tổng Giám đốc
Phan Duy Linh0.2%
Kế toán trưởng
Mai Thị Bạch Yến0.1%
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Trần Công Toại0.1%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Đặng Quang Minh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Thị Loan Anh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Văn Thanh Liêm
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Kim Cúc
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Bích Đạt
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Lê Hoa
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
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