STD

Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Nước giải khát Sài Gòn - Tây Đô

VietnamConsumerThực phẩm và đồ uốngBia và đồ uốngUPCOMCT

5.600

VND · Close 3 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Comparison requires review

+16.8%Calibrated value vs last close

Last close (VND): 5.600
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 6.539

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

Also note

Net cash exceeds the market value of the company; the step from enterprise value to equity needs a check.
Historical growth has declined.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 3 Dec 2026

Model reliability: Low; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: Not assessed; A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Anchored to close on 3 Nov 2026Recalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Thực phẩm và đồ uống” maps to the consumer group.

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details

Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.36%

Betasector default

0.910

ERP

4.38%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

11.10%

E/(D+E)

77.54%

Kd(1-t)

1.97%

D/(D+E)

22.46%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

historical blend4.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→7.37B

Projection years→10

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→5.600

Calibrated value vs last close→+16.8%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

6.539

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Discount rate (WACC)10.00%

Growth rate4.00%growth method: historical blend

Base cash flow7.4 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth	1.0%	2.5%	4.0%	5.5%	7.0%
8.0%	6.876	6.876	6.876	6.876	6.876
9.0%	6.876	6.876	6.876	6.876	6.876
10.0%	6.539	6.539	6.539	6.539	6.539
11.0%	6.539	6.539	6.539	6.539	6.539
12.0%	6.539	6.539	6.539	6.539	6.539

Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate

STD among Consumer

Every stock in the sector, STD marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one valued stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is STD. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	314	340	295	156	221	242	194	151	195
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	0.8	33	3	46	56	84	13	11	129
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	251	244	238	58	125	106	106	57	0
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	26	32	25	8	4	13	17	38	30
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	0.5	0.2	0.09	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.7	5	0.9
Net Inventories	·	36	32	29	43	37	39	57	43	35
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	36	32	29	43	37	39	57	43	35
Other current assets	·	0.5	0.2	0.3	0.6	0.2	0.3	0.2	2	0.3
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	81	98	106	173	169	212	258	239	266
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	78	86	104	122	138	162	195	223	255
Tangible fixed assets	·	78	86	104	122	138	162	195	223	255
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)	·	0	10	0	50	28	47	55	5	5
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)	·	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments	·	−5	−5	−5	−5	−2	0	0	0	0
Other non-current assets	·	3	2	1	1	1	3	7	10	7
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	3	2	1	1	1.0	3	7	10	7
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	395	438	401	329	390	455	452	390	461
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	119	164	131	49	96	153	128	92	134
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	119	164	131	49	96	153	128	92	134
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	79	106	78	0	42	80	51	0	59
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	0	0.04	0.1	0.5	0.09	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.3	0	0.2
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)	·	277	274	270	280	294	302	324	298	327
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	277	274	270	280	294	302	324	298	327
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)	·	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	55
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	13	11	7	16	30	38	60	35	50
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	395	438	401	329	390	455	452	390	461
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

Remainder

M −2.55 · 36th pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▼ −2.82

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

1.044

GMI

1.225

AQI

0.332

SGI

0.788

DEPI

0.978

SGAI

1.053

TATA

0.037

LVGI

0.801

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit: 0.7436th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 0.1%10th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

3/9

Weak

Z-Score

1.95

Grey Zone

Composite

30 to 49

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✓Net Income > 0

✗Operating CF > 0

✗ROA Rising

✗OCF > Net Income

✗Lower Leverage

✓Better Liquidity

✓No Dilution

✗Margin Up

✗Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden0.49×Interest Burden0.48×Op. Margin0.04×Turnover0.65×Leverage1.43=ROE1.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

48.60P/E

P/B: 0.41
P/S: 0.44
ROE: 0.8%
ROA: 0.6%
EPS: 115
BVPS: 13.812
Gross Margin: 5.7%
Net Margin: 0.9%
D/E: 0.29
Current Ratio: 2.62
Rev Growth: −21.2%
Profit Growth: −49.7%
EV/EBITDA: —
Div Yield: —

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 20.0M
Charter Capital: 200B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3): Bia và đồ uống
Sub-industry: Sản xuất bia
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Common ownership links for STD. Hover for detail, select a link to open it.

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước Giải khát Sài Gòn

Inst

14.4%

2.9M

2026-03-24

Capital Shine Limited

Inst

11.6%

2.3M

2026-03-24

Công ty Cổ phần Bia Sài Gòn - Miền Tây

WSB

9.5%

1.9M

2026-06-30

Công ty Cổ phần Nước giải khát Chương Dương

SCD

5.5%

1.1M

2026-03-24

Nguyễn Thị Hạnh

Indiv

3.5%

693,038

2026-06-30

Lê Hồng Xanh

Indiv

3.3%

654,225

2026-06-30

Văn Thảo Nguyên

Indiv

1.4%

280,961

2026-06-30

Nguyễn Thị Minh Tâm

Indiv

0.7%

138,665

2019-07-26

Trần Xuân Tộ

Indiv

0.7%

129,672

2019-07-26

Văn Bảo Ngọc

Indiv

0.5%

108,943

2026-06-30

Phan Duy Linh

Indiv

0.2%

32,456

2025-03-25

Mai Thị Bạch Yến

Indiv

0.1%

25,789

2019-07-26

Trần Công Toại

Indiv

0.1%

21,903

2019-07-26

Board & Management

Đặng Thế Vũ

Secretary of Management Board/Person in charge of Corporate governace

Top connections

WSB86.3%BSL68.8%BSQ66.6%SCD62.1%SBB59.6%SB154.7%BSH52.1%BSD51.2%SMB2 links BSP27.0%SBL20.0%PDC14.4%

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

Sale registrations: 2 by 2 traders; 694,077 shares
Purchase registrations: 1 by 1 trader; 654,225 shares
Registered net, share of outstanding:: −0.20%

Phạm Văn Tiến
Sale · Insider
39,852
2026-02-24
Công ty Cổ Phần Dr Biomass
Sale · Institution
654,225
2026-02-23
Lê Hồng Xanh
Purchase · Related person
654,225
2026-02-23

Insiders, large holders and related persons register a trade before they make it. A registration is not an executed trade, and a holder that did not trade often registers again.

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Why it needs review

Also note

Valuation Breakdown

DCF Sensitivity

STD among Consumer

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

Ownership network

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

STD among Consumer