SDA

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần SIMCO Sông Đà

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanhCT

1.900

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

1.155

Current

1.900

Gap

-39.2%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.000

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

11.50%

E/(D+E)

57.04%

Kd(1-t)

6.40%

D/(D+E)

42.96%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default5.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→2.58B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

2.58B

Growth Rate

5.00%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

1.155

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SDA

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2020

-2.20

Moderate

DSRI

1.644

GMI

0.757

AQI

0.976

SGI

0.715

DEPI

1.208

SGAI

1.074

TATA

0.012

LVGI

0.978

The Beneish M-Score of -2.2039 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 24.7/100, particularly low cash conversion and revenue metrics, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 24.7/100 indicates significant issues with cash conversion and receivables, suggesting potential earnings manipulation.
DSRI of 1.6439 indicates a significant increase in receivables relative to sales, which could signal aggressive revenue recognition practices.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.2039 suggests a lower likelihood of manipulation compared to the threshold, indicating some level of earnings integrity.
Strong accrual score of 95.1/100 indicates that the company is generating earnings through actual operations rather than accounting adjustments.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholders are primarily individuals, with the largest holding at 15.3%, indicating a lack of concentrated institutional support which may lead to volatility in governance and decision-making.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow metrics and receivables management, and consider a cautious approach until improvements in earnings quality are observed.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

-0.97

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-1.81

Negative

Composite

Poor

Price Risk

Momentum

-47.5%

Volatility

79.2%

Max Drawdown

-66.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

22.32P/E

P/B0.65

P/S2.69

ROE2.9%

ROA1.7%

EPS98.56

BVPS3394.73

Gross Margin8.6%

Net Margin12.0%

D/E0.75

Current Ratio0.65

Rev Growth-48.1%

Profit Growth102.6%

EV/EBITDA-2.21

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

26.2M

Charter Capital

262.1B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanh

Sub-industry

Đào tạo & Việc làm

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SDA — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

nguyen-thi-hong-ngoc

Indiv

15.3%

4.0 trieu

Đỗ Tuấn Dương

Indiv

4.9%

1.3 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Công Nghệ Smart Tech Việt Nam

Inst

3.8%

1.0 trieu

Nguyễn Sĩ Hiển

Indiv

2.5%

646.722

Đinh Văn Thuận

Indiv

1.9%

250.000

Nguyễn Thị Minh Thư

Indiv

1.9%

486.300

Trần Ngọc Hiếu

Indiv

1.4%

131.731

Ngô Đức Anh

Indiv

0.8%

200.000

Đặng Việt Anh

Indiv

0.8%

73.958

Nguyễn Thiện Mỹ

Indiv

0.3%

79.122

Board & Management

Nguyễn Thị Hồng Ngọc15.3%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Sĩ Hiển2.5%

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Minh Thu1.9%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

NGUYỄN NGỌC THẠCH

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Vũ Đức Quân

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Thị Thúy

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Ngọc Quyền

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phạm Thị Hiếu

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Thị Hồng Dịu

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Hường

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Võ Kim Sơn

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Trần Mạnh Hòa

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Nhữ Ngọc Quang

Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Trịnh Hữu Thảo

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc điều hành

Top connections

SJF2 links THG15.3%HHB13.5%SLS2 links BTB6.5%PTD5.3%CJC3.9%BSQ2 links SBB1.9%DBD1.9%PDR1.9%BHH1.9%

Computed 12/04/2026