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Consumer sector

BTB

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Bia Hà Nội - Thái Bình
Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Bia và đồ uốngCT
4.200
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
36.041
Current
4.200
Gap
+500.0%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTThực phẩm và đồ uốngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
69.26%
+
Kd(1-t)
4.56%
x
D/(D+E)
30.74%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF16.15B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
16.15B
Growth Rate
4.00%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
36.041
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — BTB

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

60
Fair
Accrual Quality
58
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.71
Low Risk
DSRI
1.321
GMI
0.946
AQI
1.084
SGI
0.918
DEPI
0.885
SGAI
1.107
TATA
-0.106
LVGI
0.774

The Beneish M-Score of -2.7071 suggests that BTB is not likely engaging in earnings manipulation, as it falls below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 59.6/100 indicates moderate concerns regarding the sustainability of earnings, particularly due to low scores in revenue and margin metrics.

Red Flags
  • Low earnings quality in revenue (0.0/100) and margin (0.0/100) metrics raises concerns about the reliability of reported earnings.
  • The SGI (Sales Growth Index) of 0.9176 indicates a decline in sales growth, which may signal underlying business challenges.
Positive Signals
  • Strong cash conversion score of 100.0/100 suggests effective management of cash flows.
  • High institutional ownership at 66.3% indicates potential stability and confidence from a significant shareholder.
Ownership Risk

The dominant ownership by Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước giải khát Hà Nội (66.3%) could lead to potential conflicts of interest or lack of accountability in decision-making, impacting minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor BTB's revenue and margin performance, and consider diversifying their portfolio to mitigate risks associated with high institutional ownership concentration.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
8/9
Strong
Z-Score
1.31
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-0.32
Negative
Composite
57
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
-22.2%
Volatility
52.9%
Max Drawdown
-40.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
79.84P/E
P/B0.29
P/S0.27
ROE0.4%
ROA0.3%
EPS53.65
BVPS14918.35
Gross Margin14.8%
Net Margin0.3%
D/E0.31
Current Ratio0.46
Rev Growth-8.3%
Profit Growth1264.5%
EV/EBITDA1.66
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
7.7M
Charter Capital
76.9B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Bia và đồ uống
Sub-industry
Sản xuất bia
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for BTB — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước giải khát Hà Nội
Inst
66.3%
5.1 trieu
Đinh Văn Thuận
Indiv
6.5%
500.000
Vũ Thanh Liêm
Indiv
0.7%
53.800
Hoàng Trọng Thư
Indiv
0.3%
25.047
Phạm Trung Kiên
Indiv
0.3%
23.200
Nguyễn Hữu Cường
Indiv
0.2%
12.800
Đỗ Duyên Ninh
Indiv
0.2%
13.000
Board & Management
Vũ Thanh Liêm0.7%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Trung Kiên0.3%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Hữu Cường0.2%
Phó Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Xuân Hạnh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Bùi Quang Vượng
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Lê Quý Huệ
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thanh Bình
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lê Thị Phương Lan
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Hoàng Chí Thanh
Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Vũ Xuân Vinh
Kế toán trưởng
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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