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Consumer sector

HBH

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần HABECO - Hải Phòng
Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Bia và đồ uốngCT
5.600
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
22.270
Current
5.600
Gap
+297.7%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTThực phẩm và đồ uốngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
64.16%
+
Kd(1-t)
5.33%
x
D/(D+E)
35.84%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF18.81B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
18.81B
Growth Rate
4.00%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
22.270
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HBH

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

64
Fair
Accrual Quality
76
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.74
Low Risk
DSRI
0.916
GMI
0.839
AQI
1.325
SGI
1.024
DEPI
0.782
SGAI
0.966
TATA
-0.061
LVGI
0.848

The Beneish M-Score of -2.7422 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in revenue and margin recognition, which could raise concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 63.9/100, with eq_margin and eq_revenue both at 0.0/100, indicating potential issues with revenue recognition and profit margins.
Positive Signals
  • DSRI of 0.9165 suggests that inventory levels are well-managed relative to sales, which is a positive indicator of operational efficiency.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with 66.7% held by a state-owned enterprise (SOE), which may lead to potential conflicts of interest and reduced accountability in financial reporting.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor the company's revenue recognition practices and consider engaging with management to clarify strategies for improving earnings quality, particularly in margin and revenue areas.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
2.00
Grey Zone
Sharpe
0.26
Positive
Composite
73
Strong
Price Risk
Momentum
+12.9%
Volatility
91.0%
Max Drawdown
-23.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
25.77P/E
P/B0.49
P/S0.33
ROE1.9%
ROA1.1%
EPS201.82
BVPS10718.80
Gross Margin4.0%
Net Margin1.3%
D/E0.56
Current Ratio1.98
Rev Growth2.4%
Profit Growth1959.4%
EV/EBITDA2.02
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
16.0M
Charter Capital
160.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Bia và đồ uống
Sub-industry
Sản xuất bia
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HBH — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước giải khát Hà Nội
Inst
66.7%
10.7 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Bia Hà Nội - Hải Phòng
Inst
14.1%
2.3 trieu
Tạ Thu Thủy
Indiv
0.7%
110.000
Đỗ Châu Tuấn
Indiv
0.2%
20.000
Dương Thị Bách
Indiv
0.1%
20.000
Board & Management
Tạ Thu Thủy0.7%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
NGUYỄN HOÀNG GIANG
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc
Trịnh Quang Huy
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Dương Ánh Tuyết
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Tiến Quyết
Phó Giám đốc
Trần Văn Trung
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Quách Thị Thu Huyền
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Như Khuê
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Bùi Thị Huyền
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Hương Giang
Kế toán trưởng
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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