THM

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Tứ Hải Hà Nam

Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng/Hàng cá nhânCT

8.400

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

10.153

Current

8.400

Gap

+20.9%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

73.42%

Kd(1-t)

6.34%

D/(D+E)

26.58%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.65%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→8.74B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

8.74B

Growth Rate

2.65%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

10.153

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — THM

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

4.18

High Risk

DSRI

7.225

GMI

1.388

AQI

0.936

SGI

1.691

DEPI

0.952

SGAI

0.804

TATA

0.015

LVGI

0.889

The Beneish M-Score of 4.1765 significantly exceeds the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating a high likelihood of earnings manipulation. Additionally, the Earnings Quality Score of 71.3 suggests concerns regarding cash conversion and margin performance, which could further signal financial distress.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of 4.1765 indicates likely earnings manipulation.
DSRI of 7.2247 suggests significant inventory growth relative to sales, raising concerns about potential overstatement of revenue.
Earnings Quality Score of 47.8 in cash conversion indicates poor cash flow relative to reported earnings.

Positive Signals

Receivables quality score of 100.0 indicates strong management of receivables.
Accrual quality score of 94.1 suggests effective accrual management.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Công ty Cổ Phần Appatex holding 65.6%, which may lead to potential governance issues and lack of accountability. This concentration poses risks if the controlling entity engages in aggressive financial practices.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence before considering an investment in THM, particularly focusing on cash flow analysis and the implications of the high Beneish M-Score. Monitoring future earnings reports for signs of improvement in cash conversion and margin performance is crucial.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.70

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.11

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-1.2%

Volatility

119.7%

Max Drawdown

-43.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

420.16P/E

P/B0.79

P/S0.86

ROE0.2%

ROA0.1%

EPS19.99

BVPS10628.82

Gross Margin20.3%

Net Margin0.2%

D/E0.27

Current Ratio1.31

Rev Growth-12.1%

Profit Growth-96.2%

EV/EBITDA13.39

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

12.2M

Charter Capital

121.5B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng

Industry (ICB L3)

Hàng cá nhân

Sub-industry

Hàng May mặc

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for THM — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ Phần Appatex

Inst

65.6%

8.0 trieu

nguyen-thi-huong

Indiv

0.2%

26.400

Top connections

HPO24.4%THS10.8%AMP8.6%HPH5.9%AFX5.7%TTZ4.7%VNY4.1%HSL3.6%NLG1.7%DPH1.3%IDV1.1%

Computed 12/04/2026