Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 9.200
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 8.814
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.9945th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 4.1%62nd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -0.0221 (93rd percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year change of -4.20, indicating its eight-component pattern of accounting signals is more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and has moved materially year-on-year. Other indicators show mixed quality: an Earnings-Quality Score of 38.0/100 with very weak cash-conversion, margin and revenue quality (all 0.0/100) but perfect receivables quality (100.0/100); an Altman Z-Score of 2.69 (the grey zone for bankruptcy distance); and a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 (weak fundamentals).
- High Beneish peer ranking: M-Score = -0.0221, Vietnam peer percentile = 93rd — the score components together place THM materially above most Vietnamese peers on measures Beneish uses to detect aggressive accounting.
- Year-over-year M-Score movement: change = -4.20 — a large trajectory change relative to prior year (Beneish M-Scores have low year-to-year correlation), which is a secondary cue that accounting variables shifted sharply.
- High AQI (asset quality index): AQI = 6.1237 — AQI measures shifts in long-lived and other assets relative to sales; a high value signals reclassification or unusual asset recognition versus prior year.
- Elevated GMI (gross margin index): GMI = 1.2346 — GMI > 1 indicates gross margins deteriorated year-on-year, which can be associated with pressure to manage earnings.
- Low TATA (total accruals to assets): TATA = 0.1003 — this measures accruals relative to assets; while not extreme, combined with poor cash conversion it suggests earnings are not being matched by cash.
- Very weak earnings-quality sub-scores: Cash conversion = 0.0/100, Margin quality = 0.0/100, Revenue quality = 0.0/100 — these measure respectively three-year operating cash flow/net profit, stability/persistence of margin, and persistence/quality of revenue reporting.
- Piotroski F-Score = 3/9 — the company scores weakly on fundamental health (profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency) according to Piotroski’s nine tests.
- Director-deal registrations concentrated to sales: 1 sale registration (1 trader; 4,500,000 shares) and net registered volume = -37.03% of shares outstanding between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 — registrations are intentions filed with the exchange and show a sizable registered sell volume in that period.
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 and Receivables outside the trade cycle = 4.1% of total assets (62nd percentile) — receivables appear well-supported and not unusually large relative to assets; the receivables-outside-trade-cycle metric captures prepayments, loans receivable and other non-trade receivables.
- DSRI (days sales receivable index) = 0.8329 — DSRI < 1 indicates receivables relative to sales decreased year-on-year rather than ballooning.
- SGAI (sales, general & administrative index) = 1.0345 — modest increase in SGA relative to sales (not a large outlier) compared with the high GMI and AQI signals.
- No accumulated losses and owner’s equity (ex-minority) positive — undistributed earnings are not negative and the balance sheet shows positive equity, a basic solvency signal.
- Cash-conversion metric (operating cash flow / net profit, 3 years) = 0.99 (45th percentile) — while not high, this value is close to parity (1.0) and ranks mid-pack among Vietnamese non-financials, so profit largely translates to cash over three years on average.
The shareholding is highly concentrated: Công ty Cổ Phần Appatex holds 65.6% (institutional majority control) and the largest individual holds 0.2%. The registrar data show one insider sale registration (4,500,000 shares) representing net registered volume of -37.03% of shares outstanding; director-deal entries are intentions filed with the exchange, not evidence of executed trades.
- Compare the 2025 note(s) on ‘long-term receivables’, ‘prepayments to suppliers’ and ‘loans receivable’ with the balance-sheet line for ‘receivables’ to reconcile the 4.1% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Recalculate the three-year operating cash flow / net profit series from the consolidated cash-flow statement and income statement to verify the cash-conversion figure of 0.99 and the Earnings-Quality Score sub-scores (cash conversion = 0.0/100; accruals quality = 59.9/100).
- Inspect the fixed-asset and intangible-asset schedules and the impairment / revaluation notes referenced in the annual report to understand contributors to AQI = 6.1237 and DEPI = 0.9748 (DEPI measures depreciation rate changes).
- Check the disclosures for related-party transactions and the register of major shareholders/transactions to reconcile the 65.6% holding by Công ty Cổ Phần Appatex and the director-deal registration(s) filed between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.87
- P/S
- 0.94
- ROE
- 0.0%
- ROA
- 0.0%
- EPS
- 5
- BVPS
- 10.614
- Gross Margin
- 21.2%
- Net Margin
- 0.0%
- D/E
- 0.24
- Current Ratio
- 1.27
- Rev Growth
- −12.1%
- Profit Growth
- −96.2%
- EV/EBITDA
- 14.09
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 12.2M
- Charter Capital
- 122B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hàng cá nhân
- Sub-industry
- Hàng May mặc
- Company Type
- CT