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TYA

Công ty Cổ phần Dây và Cáp điện Taya Việt Nam

VietnamCyclicalsHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpĐiện tử & Thiết bị điệnHOSECT
16.500
VND · Close 3 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
−4.2%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
16.500
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
15.808

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Điện tử & Thiết bị điện→Cyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector “Điện tử & Thiết bị điện” maps to the cyclical group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Technical details
Why this model

Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.

How it works

Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→110.66B
Fair EV/EBITDA→5.5x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→16.500
Calibrated value vs last close→−4.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
15.808
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA110.7 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,5191,1438729581,115787796708768608665611511
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·115123489099133131155174194235193158
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·495421269145143117640041001
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·371286241339333298289294265186209217198
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·140.425440.70.54820.331.06
Net Inventories
·454281284364511234305247313179200178146
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·457284287366513235306248314181201179146
Other current assets
·8432292029571217921239
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0.70.40.10.20.20.20.60.30.30.60.20.20.2
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·79838490101105118104109109109116127
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·727375859410210696979698113123
Tangible fixed assets
·727375859410210696979697112121
Intagible fixed assets
·0.10000.080.20.30.30.40.080.20.30.4
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·0000005000000
Other non-current assets
·5644332334444
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·4644322233323
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,5971,2269551,0481,216892914811877717774728637
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·956676476556727414435365409283387374329
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·956676476556727414435365409283387374329
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·857589406490587344374191226168187168113
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·31382042353567171132123
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·641550480492489478479446468434387353308
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·641550480492489478479446468434387353308
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·307307307307307307307307307307279279279
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·11610410499897965564538282222
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·21813969869393107841169080538
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·1,5971,2269551,0481,216892914811877717774728637
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·307307307307307307307307307307279279279

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
27
Poor
Accrual Quality
35
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
83
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.57 · 78th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +0.84
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.029
GMI
0.891
AQI
0.517
SGI
1.261
DEPI
1.004
SGAI
0.896
TATA
0.195
LVGI
1.085

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
0.1224th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.9%33rd pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.5689 (78th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +0.84, signalling that its accounting behaviour is more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and has moved materially in the last year. Earnings-quality diagnostics are weak overall (Earnings Quality 26.9/100) driven by very poor cash-conversion and margin/revenue signals (Cash conversion 0.0/100; Margin quality 0.0/100; Revenue quality 0.0/100), while receivables quality is relatively strong (82.8/100). The Altman Z-Score is 2.76 (grey zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score -1.5689: above the US -1.78 threshold but the Vietnamese context matters; the score ranks at the 78th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting) and increased by +0.84 year-over-year, indicating a material shift in the accounting profile.
  • Very low cash conversion: Cash conversion component = 0.0/100 and three-year operating cash flow / net profit = 0.12 (24th percentile among VN non-financials). This measures the company’s ability to turn reported profit into operating cash flow — a low figure suggests profits are not being realised in cash.
  • Zero margin and revenue quality scores: Margin quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100, indicating the algorithms found patterns in margins and top-line recognition that lower confidence in reported operating performance.
  • Elevated SGI and LVGI contributors to M-Score: SGI = 1.2610 (sales growth index) and LVGI = 1.0853 (leverage growth index) are above 1, measuring faster sales growth and higher leverage year-over-year—both can be associated with pressure to sustain growth and higher risk of accounting smoothing.
  • TATA (total accruals) low but non-negligible: TATA = 0.1953 measures discretionary accruals; a positive figure of 19.53% of assets indicates accruals are adding to reported profit and should be checked in detail.
  • Altman Z-Score 2.76 (grey zone): measures bankruptcy distance; being in the grey zone suggests limited cushion compared with safer firms.
  • Piotroski F-Score 4/9 (neutral): measures near-term fundamentals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency); a middling score indicates mixed operational fundamentals.
Positive Signals
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle low: 0.9% of total assets (33rd percentile). This metric measures prepayments, loans receivable and other non-trade receivables; a low percentage reduces concern about material related-party loans or long-term receivables hiding cash flows.
  • Receivables quality high: Receivables quality = 82.8/100, indicating the algorithm finds fewer red flags in revenue-related receivables recognition and aging.
  • AQI (asset quality index) supportive: AQI = 0.5169 (<1). AQI measures write-offs and non-current asset shifts; a value below 1 generally signals fewer asset-quality deterioration signals feeding into the M-Score.
  • No accumulated losses and equity positive: Undistributed earnings are not negative, owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive, and there were 0 years of parent net loss through FY2025, which are concrete balance-sheet and profit continuity positives.
  • Director-deal registrations skew to purchases: Four purchase registrations (45,500 shares across three registrants) and zero sale registrations registered in the last 12 months; registrations measure declared intentions to trade, not executed transactions.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is highly concentrated: Taya Vietnam (Cayman) Holding Ltd. holds 80.0% (institutional), with the next largest holders at 3.5%, 2.4% and smaller institutional stakes. This concentration implies control is tightly held by the Cayman holding entity; 0 sale registrations and several purchase registrations by insiders/related persons are recorded but registrations are intentions, not executed trades.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the 2025 operating cash flow reconciliation (cash flow statement and related note) with consolidated net profit to verify the components driving the 3‑year cash conversion ratio of 0.12.
  • Inspect the notes supporting trade and non‑trade receivables (receivables aging, related‑party receivables and prepayments) to confirm the 0.9% of total assets labelled as receivables outside the trade cycle.
  • Reconcile total accruals and the TATA calculation by reviewing the accounting policies and notes for provisions, depreciation and other non-cash adjustments that produce TATA = 0.1953.
  • Review financing and debt schedule notes for the year-over-year leverage increase (LVGI = 1.0853) and the drivers of SGI = 1.2610 (sales growth), including related-party transactions and off‑balance financing disclosures.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.76
Grey Zone
Sharpe
−0.41
Negative
Composite
60
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.80×Interest Burden0.99×Op. Margin0.06×Turnover1.47×Leverage2.49=ROE18.5%
Price Risk
Momentum
−5.9%
Volatility
20.1%
Max Drawdown
−23.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
4.30P/E
P/B
0.79
P/S
0.22
ROE
19.9%
ROA
8.4%
EPS
3.863
BVPS
20.892
Gross Margin
10.8%
Net Margin
5.1%
D/E
1.34
Current Ratio
1.59
Rev Growth
+26.1%
Profit Growth
+52.8%
EV/EBITDA
4.21
Div Yield
4.9%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
30.7M
Charter Capital
307B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Điện tử & Thiết bị điện
Sub-industry
Hàng điện & điện tử
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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