BBH

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Bao bì Hoàng Thạch

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Hàng công nghiệpCT

13.900

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

10.046

Current

13.900

Gap

-27.7%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

80.89%

Kd(1-t)

6.25%

D/(D+E)

19.11%

WACC

11.06%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

13.900

50%DCF Value

6.192

Blended Intrinsic

10.046

Value Decomposition

39%

61%

Explicit period (39%)Terminal value (61%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — BBH

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2019

-4.64

Low Risk

DSRI

0.570

GMI

0.860

AQI

1.000

SGI

0.803

DEPI

1.237

SGAI

1.222

TATA

-0.359

LVGI

0.447

BBH exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -4.6352, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 48.3 suggests potential concerns regarding the sustainability of earnings, particularly in receivables management.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 48.3 indicates potential issues with earnings sustainability, particularly with a low receivables score of 37.3.
The SGI of 0.8029 suggests a declining sales growth rate, which may impact future revenue generation.

Positive Signals

A DSRI of 0.5702 indicates that inventory levels are well-managed relative to sales, reducing the risk of overstatement.
An AQI of 1.0000 reflects strong cash conversion, suggesting that the company is effectively converting earnings into cash.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholder, Tổng Công ty Xi măng Việt Nam, holds a significant 27.8% stake, indicating a strong institutional presence. However, the fragmented nature of individual ownership may lead to governance challenges.

Recommendation

Monitor the company's receivables closely and assess the sustainability of cash flows. Consider a cautious approach to investment until there is improvement in earnings quality metrics.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

3.35

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.03

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+15.3%

Volatility

141.6%

Max Drawdown

-48.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

39.20P/E

P/B0.38

P/S0.23

ROE1.0%

ROA0.8%

EPS354.59

BVPS36664.21

Gross Margin6.7%

Net Margin0.6%

D/E0.20

Current Ratio5.04

Rev Growth10.5%

Profit Growth32.2%

EV/EBITDA13.14

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

2.0M

Charter Capital

20.5B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Hàng công nghiệp

Sub-industry

Containers & Đóng gói

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for BBH — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Xi măng Việt Nam

Inst

27.8%

568.448

Nguyễn Văn Tọa

Indiv

1.7%

34.561

Trần Anh Dũng

Indiv

1.6%

32.520

nguyen-thi-minh

Indiv

1.1%

22.216

Lê Thành Long

Indiv

0.7%

13.452

Lê Hữu Hà

Indiv

0.4%

7.731

Trần Thị Phương Dung

Indiv

0.1%

2.560

Trần Thị Lương

Indiv

0.1%

2.560

Board & Management

Nguyễn Văn Tọa1.7%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Anh Dũng1.6%

Phó Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Minh1.1%

Kế toán trưởng/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc điều hành

Lê Thành Long0.7%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Hữu Hà0.4%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Thị Phương Dung0.1%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Bùi Thị Dung

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Đỗ Lưu Vinh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

HT179.7%BTS79.5%THS79.0%BCC73.1%HOM71.1%DXV65.8%VTV62.9%TMX59.6%HCT53.9%TXM51.2%HTV50.1%BPC49.0%

Computed 12/04/2026