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Construction sector

QNP

Construction
Công ty Cổ phần Cảng Quy Nhơn
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT
32.650
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
15.294
Current
32.650
Gap
-53.2%
ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpConstruction
Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group
ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.100
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.20%
Ke
12.20%
x
E/(D+E)
66.47%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.35%
x
D/(D+E)
33.53%
=
WACC
10.24%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend8.89%
Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
50%EV/EBITDA Value
23.524
50%DCF Value
7.063
Blended Intrinsic
15.294
Value Decomposition
34%
66%
Explicit period (34%)Terminal value (66%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — QNP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

72
Good
Accrual Quality
88
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
41
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
8

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.23
Moderate
DSRI
1.003
GMI
0.972
AQI
1.993
SGI
0.981
DEPI
0.934
SGAI
0.911
TATA
-0.029
LVGI
0.992

QNP presents several concerning indicators suggesting potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of -2.2337, which is below the manipulation threshold. However, the earnings quality score of 71.5 indicates relatively strong cash conversion metrics, suggesting some operational strength.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.2337 indicates potential earnings manipulation, significantly below the threshold of -1.78.
  • Low receivables quality score of 40.8/100 raises concerns about revenue recognition practices.
Positive Signals
  • High earnings quality score of 71.5/100, particularly strong cash conversion at 100.0/100, indicating effective cash management.
  • Strong institutional ownership at 85.0%, primarily by Tổng Công ty Hàng hải Việt Nam, suggesting confidence from major stakeholders.
Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership by institutional investors, particularly Tổng Công ty Hàng hải Việt Nam at 75.0%, may lead to governance risks and reduced minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor QNP's financial disclosures and consider a cautious approach due to the elevated risk of earnings manipulation, while also recognizing the strong cash conversion metrics as a potential buffer.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
3.21
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.35
Negative
Composite
43
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-6.8%
Volatility
31.6%
Max Drawdown
-21.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
9.43P/E
P/B1.44
P/S1.19
ROE15.7%
ROA10.5%
EPS3530.31
BVPS23105.64
Gross Margin24.2%
Net Margin12.6%
D/E0.50
Current Ratio2.50
Rev Growth-1.7%
Profit Growth11.3%
EV/EBITDA6.60
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
40.4M
Charter Capital
404.1B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Vận tải
Sub-industry
Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for QNP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Hàng hải Việt Nam
Inst
75.0%
30.3 trieu
Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Và Khoáng Sản Hợp Thành
Inst
10.0%
4.0 trieu
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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