VSA

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Đại lý Hàng hải Việt Nam

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

20.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

56.138

Current

20.000

Gap

+180.7%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

55.50%

Kd(1-t)

6.30%

D/(D+E)

44.50%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

28.801

50%DCF Value

83.475

Blended Intrinsic

56.138

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VSA

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.95

Low Risk

DSRI

0.957

GMI

0.868

AQI

1.005

SGI

0.980

DEPI

0.874

SGAI

1.166

TATA

-0.061

LVGI

1.058

VSA exhibits an elevated risk of earnings manipulation as indicated by its Beneish M-Score of -2.9501, which is significantly below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. While the company maintains a reasonable Earnings Quality Score of 68.6, specific metrics such as revenue quality are concerning, suggesting potential issues in revenue recognition.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.9501 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation, well below the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings quality margin score of 30.8/100 is low, indicating potential issues with profitability recognition.
Revenue quality score of 0.0/100 suggests significant concerns regarding the legitimacy of reported revenues.

Positive Signals

Cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow relative to earnings, suggesting that cash generation is not currently an issue.
Ownership by Tổng Công ty Hàng hải Việt Nam at 51.0% provides stability and potential for strategic oversight.

Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and individual shareholders may lead to governance risks, particularly if interests diverge from minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should conduct further due diligence, particularly on revenue recognition practices, and consider a cautious approach to investment in VSA given the elevated risk indicators.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.88

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.44

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

-9.7%

Volatility

33.4%

Max Drawdown

-21.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

12.47P/E

P/B0.87

P/S0.27

ROE7.0%

ROA3.8%

EPS1684.61

BVPS24040.96

Gross Margin9.0%

Net Margin2.2%

D/E0.89

Current Ratio1.72

Rev Growth-2.0%

Profit Growth8.4%

EV/EBITDA2.35

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

14.1M

Charter Capital

141.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Dịch vụ vận tải

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VSA — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Hàng hải Việt Nam

Inst

51.0%

7.2 trieu

Lương Duyên Nga

Indiv

12.3%

1.7 trieu

Trần Hồng Quang

Indiv

7.0%

980.540

Công ty Cổ phần Cung ứng tàu biển Đà Nẵng

Inst

6.2%

722.500

Đào Bá Dong

Indiv

5.1%

588.400

Board & Management

Trần Hồng Quang7.0%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Bích Thảo

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Thanh Trang

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Phó Giám đốc

Trần Công Toàn

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Võ Trung Thắng

Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán

Nguyễn Hồng Hải

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Hoàng Việt

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Thanh Hà

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thế Tiệp

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đỗ Tiến Đức

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Thị Hạnh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Ngô Thanh Tùng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

CCT99.0%PHP92.6%CCR80.9%QNP75.0%CDN75.0%SGP65.5%VLG56.7%CPI56.6%NAP51.0%VNA51.0%VOS51.0%NOS51.0%

Computed 12/04/2026