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Construction sector

PAP

Construction
Công ty Cổ phần Dầu khí đầu tư khai thác Cảng Phước An
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT
26.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
4.205
Current
26.000
Gap
-83.8%
ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpConstruction
Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group
ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Distressed Valuation
Insufficient Earnings
BVPS
8.410
x
Discount
50%
=
Floor Value
8.410

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — PAP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

33
Weak
Accrual Quality
53
Cash Conversion
40
Receivables
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2016

8.44
High Risk
DSRI
14.837
GMI
0.669
AQI
0.496
SGI
0.128
DEPI
0.955
SGAI
6.553
TATA
0.028
LVGI
0.457

The Beneish M-Score of 8.4417 significantly exceeds the manipulation threshold, indicating a high likelihood of earnings manipulation. Coupled with a low earnings quality score of 29.6/100, particularly concerning cash conversion and receivables metrics, this stock presents substantial red flags for investors.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of 8.4417 indicates likely earnings manipulation.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 29.6/100, with cash conversion and receivables at 0.0/100, signals severe issues in earnings sustainability.
Ownership Risk

The top shareholders include significant institutional ownership (32.4% combined), which may provide some stability; however, the concentration of ownership among a few individuals raises concerns about potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and consider avoiding this stock until further clarity on its financial practices is provided. A thorough review of financial statements and potential audits is recommended.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
-0.16
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-0.00
Negative
Composite
18
Poor
Price Risk
Momentum
-9.1%
Volatility
81.0%
Max Drawdown
-42.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
-12.55P/E
P/B3.25
P/S40.91
ROE-22.9%
ROA-5.5%
EPS-2175.39
BVPS8409.97
Gross Margin-123.7%
Net Margin-326.0%
D/E4.74
Current Ratio0.51
Rev Growth7027.9%
Profit Growth-2815.9%
EV/EBITDA-122.63
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
232.0M
Charter Capital
3570.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Vận tải
Sub-industry
Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for PAP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty TNHH MTV Hoành Sơn
Inst
17.3%
40.2 trieu
Tập Đoàn Công Nghiệp – Năng Lượng Quốc Gia Việt Nam
Inst
15.1%
35.0 trieu
Bùi Hữu Quốc Bảo
Indiv
8.3%
16.5 trieu
Trần Phi Hùng
Indiv
7.6%
27.0 trieu
Hoàng Thanh Hùng
Indiv
6.3%
12.5 trieu
Võ Trung Thành
Indiv
6.3%
12.5 trieu
Trương Công Nghĩa
Indiv
5.0%
17.8 trieu
Trần Mạnh Cường
Indiv
4.9%
17.6 trieu
Phan Thế Anh
Indiv
4.9%
17.5 trieu
Hà Văn Nam
Indiv
4.9%
17.5 trieu
Phạm Hồng Khánh
Indiv
4.9%
17.5 trieu
Phạm Văn Khánh
Indiv
4.9%
17.5 trieu
Bành Xuân Hoài
Indiv
4.9%
17.5 trieu
Trần Bảo Chung
Indiv
4.9%
17.5 trieu
Trần Văn Nguyện
Indiv
4.9%
17.5 trieu
Võ Thị Hồng Thắm
Indiv
4.9%
17.5 trieu
Trần Nhân Tâm
Indiv
2.2%
5.2 trieu
Lê Đình Nghiệm
Indiv
2.2%
5.0 trieu
Nguyễn Quốc Quân
Indiv
0.7%
1.3 trieu
Board & Management
Hoàng Sỹ Quyết
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Ngọc Dũng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Dương Thị Tú Anh
Kế toán trưởng
Đào Minh Tùng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Bùi Hữu Giang
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Đào Đức Mạnh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Duy Hòa
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phạm Hoành Sơn
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Hồng Sơn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
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