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Công ty Cổ phần Thủy điện Sông Ba Hạ

VietnamUtilitiesĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtSản xuất & Phân phối ĐiệnUPCOMCT
37.000
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+26.7%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
37.000
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
46.892

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt→Utility
Classified as utility because ICB sector “Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt” maps to the utility group.
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).

Technical details
Why this model

Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.

How it works

Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.

Best for

Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.820
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend3.50%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS→4.945
Payout ratio→126.0%
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→37.000
Calibrated value vs last close→+26.7%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
46.892
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Growth rate3.50%growth method: fundamental equity blend
Dividend per share4.945dps source: eventspayout ratio: 126.05
Feeds valuation:GrowthModel inputs
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,5851,0781,4091,4139611,183731772621367
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)
·33722944268123213158
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)
·8737615858595587506024212080
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·66930259354539640488226197207
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·114152121.02
Net Inventories
·9724349332
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·9724349332
Other current assets
·0.07100.200.01240.20.020.03
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·6287038211,0081,1741,3391,5121,7011,8922,126
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·0000500000
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·0000500000
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·6046817739631,1411,3211,4931,6791,8702,078
Tangible fixed assets
·5996767689571,1371,3161,4891,6751,8652,074
Intagible fixed assets
·4455544445
Other non-current assets
·14151314161718202247
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·12000.3000023
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·2,2131,7812,2302,4202,1352,5232,2432,4732,5132,493
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·216133118163133172202448624975
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·216133104150119159154340317482
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)
·000004860199186187
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·000000000.10
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·001414141448108306493
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)
·00000048108306493
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·1,9961,6482,1122,2572,0022,3502,0412,0251,8901,518
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·1,9961,6482,1122,2572,0022,3502,0412,0251,8901,518
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·1,2421,2421,2421,2421,2421,2421,2421,2421,2421,242
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·228146127,43633524012910449139
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·478212822633471931648686586218
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·2,2131,7812,2302,4202,1352,5232,2432,4732,5132,493
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·1,2421,2421,2421,2421,2421,2421,2421,2421,2421,242

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
38
Weak
Accrual Quality
69
Cash Conversion
55
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
67
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.43 · 81st pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +2.75
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.404
GMI
0.709
AQI
0.897
SGI
1.577
DEPI
1.462
SGAI
0.761
TATA
0.078
LVGI
1.308

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
1.1853rd pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.1%7th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The Beneish M-Score is -1.4315 (Vietnam peer percentile 80th) with a year-over-year rise of +2.75, indicating accounting aggressiveness is higher than most Vietnamese peers and has moved materially year-on-year. Specific Beneish components show elevated sales/receivable signals (DSRI 1.4038) and depreciation/SGA shifts (DEPI 1.4624, LVGI 1.3078) while total accruals (TATA 0.0777) are modest; earnings-quality metrics are mixed with very weak receivables and revenue quality (both 0.0/100) but reasonable accruals quality (68.9/100) and margin quality (66.8/100). The company shows low bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score 16.35) and neutral operating fundamentals (Piotroski F-Score 6/9).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score -1.4315 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation relative to a US-calibrated cutoff): the company sits at the 80th percentile versus Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting) and the M-Score increased by +2.75 year-over-year (a notable trajectory signal).
  • DSRI 1.4038 (Days Sales in Receivables Index; measures receivables growth relative to sales): value >1.0 suggests receivables grew faster than sales in the period, which can indicate revenue recognition or collection timing differences.
  • DEPI 1.4624 (Depreciation Index; measures reduction in depreciation expense relative to prior period): >1.0 can indicate slower depreciation or capitalisation choices that inflate margins.
  • LVGI 1.3078 (Leverage Index; measures change in leverage): >1.0 indicates rising leverage which can affect reported profits and risk profiles.
  • Receivables quality 0.0/100 and Revenue quality 0.0/100 (earnings-quality sub-scores): both measure the quality and persistence of reported revenue and receivables; zero scores flag very weak evidence of high-quality revenue/receivable recognition.
  • Cash conversion three-year ratio 1.18 (operating cash flow / net profit; 53rd percentile among VN peers): ratio near 1 with a mid percentile implies profits are only modestly converting to cash and the company is not particularly strong on cash realization relative to peers.
Positive Signals
  • TATA 0.0777 (Total Accruals to Assets; measures accrual portion of earnings): a modest positive value suggesting total accruals are not extreme.
  • GMI 0.7088 (Gross Margin Index; measures deterioration in gross margin): <1.0 indicates gross margins have improved rather than declined year-over-year.
  • SGAI 0.7609 (Sales, General & Admin Index; measures change in SG&A relative to sales): <1.0 indicates SG&A grew less than sales, which can reflect operating leverage rather than aggressive expense manipulation.
  • Altman Z-Score 16.35 (measures bankruptcy distance): a high Z-Score places the company well inside the 'safe' zone on traditional bankruptcy-distance metrics.
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9 (measures nine fundamental signals of financial strength): a score of 6 is neutral-to-favourable, indicating several positive operating and balance-sheet fundamentals.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is highly concentrated in state-affiliated institutional shareholders: Tổng Công ty Phát điện 2 holds 61.8%, Công ty TNHH Năng Lượng Ree 25.8%, and Tổng Công ty Điện Lực Miền Nam 7.2%, leaving minimal free float. No individual insider holdings are material in the disclosed top list; no director-deal registrations were provided in the data supplied.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the Notes to the financial statements for FY2025 on receivables, prepayments and "other long-term receivables" with the reported 0.1% of total assets figure for receivables outside the trade cycle to confirm classification (look for a schedule or note line for prepayments/loans to related parties).
  • Reconcile profit before tax and "Net cash from operating activities" in the cash flow statement for FY2023–FY2025 to verify the three-year cash conversion ratio of 1.18 and identify any large non-cash adjustments (check the cash flow reconciliation note).
  • Inspect the fixed-asset and depreciation note to review the basis and changes in depreciation methods/estimates that underlie DEPI 1.4624 (look for changes in useful lives, salvage values or capitalization policies).
  • Review the related-party transactions note and the loans/advances to related parties schedule to check for intra-group receivables or prepayments that could affect the revenue/receivables quality scores (given revenue quality 0.0/100 and low receivables-outside-cycle).

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
16.35
Safe Zone
Sharpe
−0.62
Negative
Composite
73
70 and above
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.80×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin0.68×Turnover0.45×Leverage1.11=ROE27.1%
Price Risk
Momentum
−6.3%
Volatility
23.8%
Max Drawdown
−14.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
8.51P/E
P/B
2.30
P/S
4.64
ROE
29.6%
ROA
27.0%
EPS
4.348
BVPS
16.070
Gross Margin
70.8%
Net Margin
54.6%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
7.33
Rev Growth
+57.7%
Profit Growth
+101.0%
EV/EBITDA
5.09
Div Yield
4.1%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
124M
Charter Capital
1,242B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Sub-industry
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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