BAL

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Bao bì Bia - Rượu - Nước giải khát

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Hàng công nghiệpCT

8.800

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

9.625

Current

8.800

Gap

+9.4%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

87.18%

Kd(1-t)

6.27%

D/(D+E)

12.82%

WACC

11.44%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.76%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

8.152

50%DCF Value

11.098

Blended Intrinsic

9.625

Value Decomposition

40%

60%

Explicit period (40%)Terminal value (60%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — BAL

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.35

Moderate

DSRI

1.572

GMI

0.877

AQI

0.113

SGI

0.795

DEPI

1.158

SGAI

1.105

TATA

0.038

LVGI

0.899

The Beneish M-Score of -2.3484 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 42.0/100, particularly low cash conversion (12.0/100), raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 42.0/100 indicates potential issues with earnings sustainability.
Cash conversion rate of 12.0/100 suggests significant discrepancies between reported earnings and actual cash flow.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.3484 is well below the manipulation threshold, indicating lower risk of earnings manipulation.
Strong institutional ownership at 69.0% by Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước giải khát Hà Nội may provide stability and oversight.

Ownership Risk

The high institutional ownership (69.0%) may mitigate risks associated with management decisions, but the concentration of ownership could lead to potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow metrics and consider the implications of low earnings quality before making investment decisions. A deeper analysis of operational efficiency and revenue recognition practices is recommended.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

5.14

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.01

Positive

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-0.7%

Volatility

95.0%

Max Drawdown

-39.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

11.34P/E

P/B0.58

P/S0.47

ROE5.1%

ROA4.5%

EPS775.81

BVPS15285.77

Gross Margin24.2%

Net Margin4.1%

D/E0.13

Current Ratio7.75

Rev Growth-20.5%

Profit Growth7.0%

EV/EBITDA9.15

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

2.0M

Charter Capital

20.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Hàng công nghiệp

Sub-industry

Containers & Đóng gói

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for BAL — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước giải khát Hà Nội

Inst

69.0%

1.4 trieu

Nguyễn Hồng Liên

Indiv

0.6%

12.650

nguyen-van-do

Indiv

0.3%

6.200

Nguyễn Thị Kiều Chi

Indiv

0.3%

5.980

Nguyễn Hải Hồ

Indiv

0.2%

3.550

Board & Management

Đỗ Thị Lan Thủy

Kế toán trưởng

ĐOÀN THỊ THU HUYỀN

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Hà Thị Giang

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Đức Khôi

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Minh Tuấn

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Lưu Thị Mỹ Hạnh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Vũ Thị Ngọc Bích

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Nguyễn Quang Thanh

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

HBH69.0%BTB69.0%BHP69.0%BQB69.0%HAT69.0%HAD69.0%THB69.0%HNR69.0%HHB69.0%BBM69.0%HRB69.0%BHK69.0%

Computed 12/04/2026