BBM

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Bia Hà Nội - Nam Định

Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Bia và đồ uốngCT

8.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

35.645

Current

8.500

Gap

+319.4%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

68.21%

Kd(1-t)

6.15%

D/(D+E)

31.79%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default4.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→3.78B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

3.78B

Growth Rate

4.00%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

35.645

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — BBM

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-0.16

High Risk

DSRI

4.207

GMI

0.853

AQI

1.276

SGI

0.897

DEPI

0.890

SGAI

1.121

TATA

-0.105

LVGI

1.159

BBM exhibits several concerning indicators that suggest potential earnings manipulation, particularly highlighted by a Beneish M-Score of -0.1646, which is well above the threshold for likely manipulation. Additionally, the earnings quality score of 42.9/100 indicates significant weaknesses in revenue recognition and margin quality, warranting close scrutiny.

Red Flags

DSRI of 4.2068 indicates a significant increase in receivables relative to sales, suggesting potential revenue recognition issues.
Earnings Quality Score of 42.9/100, with 0.0/100 in receivables and revenue metrics, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Positive Signals

Cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow relative to earnings, which is a positive sign amidst other red flags.

Ownership Risk

The majority ownership by Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước giải khát Hà Nội (51.0%) suggests potential influence over corporate governance, which could mitigate some risks but also raise concerns about transparency and accountability.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor BBM's financial disclosures and consider a cautious approach, given the elevated risk of earnings manipulation. It may be prudent to wait for improved earnings quality metrics before making significant investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

3.09

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.30

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+1.7%

Volatility

150.8%

Max Drawdown

-58.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

13.01P/E

P/B0.68

P/S0.32

ROE5.3%

ROA3.7%

EPS653.51

BVPS12496.57

Gross Margin27.6%

Net Margin2.5%

D/E0.47

Current Ratio2.18

Rev Growth-9.3%

Profit Growth104.0%

EV/EBITDA2.76

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

2.0M

Charter Capital

20.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Thực phẩm và đồ uống

Industry (ICB L3)

Bia và đồ uống

Sub-industry

Sản xuất bia

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for BBM — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước giải khát Hà Nội

Inst

51.0%

1.0 trieu

Nguyễn Thạc Dũng

Indiv

7.0%

141.080

Đặng Thị Bích Thược

Indiv

1.0%

20.000

Đặng Quang Thắng

Indiv

0.6%

12.990

Vương Toàn

Indiv

0.5%

10.000

Trần Thị Điệp

Indiv

0.3%

5.560

Lê Vũ Đại

Indiv

0.2%

4.480

Vũ Thế Tường

Indiv

0.2%

4.150

Phạm Xuân Hải

Indiv

0.2%

3.850

Nguyễn Thị Thành

Indiv

0.2%

3.130

Đặng Thị Thúy

Indiv

0.1%

3.000

Trần Đại Nghĩa

Indiv

0.1%

2.560

Lê Thị Thi

Indiv

0.1%

2.500

Board & Management

Đặng Quang Thắng0.6%

Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Thị Diệp0.3%

Kế toán trưởng

Vũ Thế Tường0.2%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thị Thanh0.2%

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Đặng Thị Thúy0.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Thị Phương Lan

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thanh Bình

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trần Minh Tuấn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Kiều Chi

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

BAL69.0%HBH66.7%BTB66.3%BHP65.0%BQB62.1%HAT60.0%HAD55.0%THB55.0%HNR54.3%HHB53.9%HRB51.0%BHK51.0%

Computed 12/04/2026