THB

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Bia Hà Nội - Thanh Hóa

Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Bia và đồ uốngCT

9.200

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

24.877

Current

9.200

Gap

+170.4%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

49.64%

Kd(1-t)

5.66%

D/(D+E)

50.36%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default4.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→14.90B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

14.90B

Growth Rate

4.00%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

24.877

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — THB

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-0.59

High Risk

DSRI

1.811

GMI

1.010

AQI

1.775

SGI

1.033

DEPI

1.064

SGAI

1.037

TATA

0.175

LVGI

1.065

The Beneish M-Score of -0.5881 suggests that THB is not likely engaged in earnings manipulation, as it is well above the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 34.5/100, particularly low cash conversion and revenue quality metrics, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score at 34.5/100 indicates significant issues with cash conversion (0.0/100) and revenue quality (0.0/100), suggesting potential overstatement of earnings.
DSRI at 1.8106, significantly above 1, indicates potential issues with inventory management relative to sales, which could signal future write-downs.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -0.5881 is well above the manipulation threshold, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
SGI at 1.0326 suggests that sales growth is in line with the industry, which can be a positive indicator of operational performance.

Ownership Risk

The significant ownership by Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước giải khát Hà Nội at 55.0% indicates a strong institutional backing, which can provide stability. However, high concentration may lead to governance risks and limited minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow metrics and revenue recognition practices, given the low earnings quality score. A cautious approach is recommended until improvements in cash conversion and revenue quality are observed.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

2/9

Weak

Z-Score

5.71

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.50

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-7.2%

Volatility

54.9%

Max Drawdown

-41.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

24.65P/E

P/B0.71

P/S0.06

ROE2.9%

ROA1.5%

EPS373.21

BVPS12923.03

Gross Margin7.2%

Net Margin0.3%

D/E1.01

Current Ratio1.72

Rev Growth3.9%

Profit Growth11.9%

EV/EBITDA-1.27

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

11.4M

Charter Capital

114.2B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Thực phẩm và đồ uống

Industry (ICB L3)

Bia và đồ uống

Sub-industry

Sản xuất bia

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for THB — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước giải khát Hà Nội

Inst

55.0%

6.3 trieu

barca global master fund, l.p

Inst

3.7%

423.715

Lương Xuân Hải

Indiv

1.8%

211.160

Hồ Thị Hà

Indiv

1.5%

176.530

Lương Thị Thùy Nga

Indiv

1.2%

137.960

nguyen-kien-cuong

Indiv

1.1%

130.150

Nguyễn Quang Huynh

Indiv

0.2%

20.680

Nguyễn Quốc Chính

Indiv

0.1%

14.040

Lê Ngọc Tụng

Indiv

0.1%

13.810

Lê Nguyên Hùng

Indiv

0.1%

13.470

Board & Management

Lương Xuân Dũng6.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Kiên Cường1.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Lê Nguyên Hùng0.1%

Phó Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đỗ Trường Giang

Phó Giám đốc

Nguyễn Duy Hà

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Lê Thị Hồng

Phó Giám đốc

Bùi Trường Thắng

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Mạnh Toàn

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Lê Anh Tuấn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Minh Thế

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phùng Sỹ Hữu

Kế toán trưởng

Top connections

BAL69.0%HBH66.7%BTB66.3%BHP65.0%BQB62.1%HAT60.0%HAD55.0%HNR55.0%HHB55.0%BBM55.0%HRB55.0%BHK55.0%

Computed 12/04/2026