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Consumer sector

HAD

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Bia Hà Nội - Hải Dương
Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Bia và đồ uốngCT
15.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
27.731
Current
15.000
Gap
+84.9%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTThực phẩm và đồ uốngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
77.70%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.35%
x
D/(D+E)
22.30%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend4.20%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF6.31B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
6.31B
Growth Rate
4.20%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
27.731
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HAD

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

33
Weak
Accrual Quality
70
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.55
Elevated
DSRI
1.192
GMI
0.926
AQI
2.269
SGI
0.947
DEPI
1.223
SGAI
1.065
TATA
0.075
LVGI
1.104

HAD exhibits several concerning indicators of earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -1.5469, which is close to the manipulation threshold. The earnings quality score of 32.5/100, particularly low cash conversion metrics, raises additional concerns about the reliability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -1.5469, indicating potential earnings manipulation risk as it is close to the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 32.5/100, with cash conversion metrics at 0.0/100, suggesting poor quality of earnings.
  • Receivables quality score of 0.0/100, indicating significant concerns regarding revenue recognition practices.
Positive Signals
  • DSRI of 1.1918 indicates a reasonable level of sales growth relative to receivables, suggesting some operational stability.
  • High margin score of 100.0/100 indicates strong profitability potential despite other weaknesses.
Ownership Risk

The majority ownership by Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước giải khát Hà Nội (55.0%) suggests a stable control structure, but it also raises concerns about potential conflicts of interest and lack of minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should approach HAD with caution, closely monitoring future earnings reports and cash flow statements. Consider waiting for improved earnings quality metrics and transparency before making significant investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
4.08
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.00
Positive
Composite
46
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+1.1%
Volatility
55.6%
Max Drawdown
-19.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
8.24P/E
P/B0.77
P/S0.35
ROE9.4%
ROA7.2%
EPS1735.92
BVPS18538.17
Gross Margin24.8%
Net Margin4.3%
D/E0.33
Current Ratio2.96
Rev Growth-5.1%
Profit Growth10.1%
EV/EBITDA5.65
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
4.0M
Charter Capital
40.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Bia và đồ uống
Sub-industry
Sản xuất bia
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HAD — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước giải khát Hà Nội
Inst
55.0%
2.2 trieu
afc vietnam fund
Inst
3.4%
135.000
Đặng Thi Nguyệt
Indiv
2.9%
116.600
Nguyễn Đặng Toàn
Indiv
0.5%
22.200
Tăng Thị Thanh
Indiv
0.5%
20.500
Nguyễn Văn Hách
Indiv
0.5%
20.440
Vũ Hồng Tứ
Indiv
0.5%
20.000
Nguyễn Văn Hải
Indiv
0.4%
17.000
Nguyễn Tiến Gồm
Indiv
0.3%
10.400
Vương Toàn
Indiv
0.1%
5.380
Board & Management
Nguyễn Đặng Toàn0.5%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Vân Hà
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Giám đốc
Vũ Văn Khoan
Phó Giám đốc
Trần Văn Trung
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Trịnh Quang Huy
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Bùi Bảo Ngọc
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Huy Loãn
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc
Bùi Thị Thanh Bình
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Đặng Thị Minh Duyệt
Kế toán trưởng
Phạm Mạnh Toàn
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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