VNVALUEVNVALUE
Updated weekly
Back to Dashboard
Construction sector

VST

Construction
Công ty Cổ phần Vận tải và Thuê Tàu biển Việt Nam
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT
3.200
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
26
Current
3.200
Gap
-99.2%
ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpConstruction
Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group
ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.100
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.20%
Ke
12.20%
x
E/(D+E)
100.00%
+
Kd(1-t)
0.00%
x
D/(D+E)
0.00%
=
WACC
12.20%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default3.00%
Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
50%EV/EBITDA Value
4.540
50%DCF Value
-4.488
Blended Intrinsic
26
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VST

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

31
Weak
Accrual Quality
60
Cash Conversion
63
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-0.17
High Risk
DSRI
0.383
GMI
5.384
AQI
0.429
SGI
1.059
DEPI
2.417
SGAI
1.014
TATA
0.101
LVGI
0.656

VST exhibits several concerning indicators that suggest potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -0.1665, which is well above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. The earnings quality score of 30.7/100, especially the zero scores in receivables, margin, and revenue metrics, raises significant red flags regarding the company's financial integrity.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -0.1665 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is above the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 30.7/100 is low, with eq_receivables, eq_margin, and eq_revenue all scoring 0.0/100, suggesting poor earnings quality.
  • GMI of 5.3838 indicates a significant increase in gross margin, which may be unsustainable and a potential sign of aggressive accounting practices.
Positive Signals
  • DSRI of 0.3827 suggests that accounts receivable are well managed relative to sales, which could indicate a lower risk of revenue recognition issues.
  • SGI of 1.0588 indicates modest sales growth, which is a positive sign in the context of the Vietnamese market.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows significant institutional control, with Tổng Công ty Hàng hải Việt Nam holding 43.3%, which may provide stability but also raises concerns about potential conflicts of interest and lack of minority shareholder protection.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor VST's financial disclosures and performance metrics. It may be prudent to wait for improved earnings quality indicators and transparency before considering any investment.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
2/9
Weak
Z-Score
-3.66
Distress Zone
Sharpe
0.04
Positive
Composite
29
Poor
Price Risk
Momentum
+17.2%
Volatility
82.6%
Max Drawdown
-32.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
0.84P/E
P/B0.00
P/S0.39
ROE-45.3%
ROA55.2%
EPS3584.60
BVPS0.00
Gross Margin2.6%
Net Margin47.1%
D/E-2.22
Current Ratio0.18
Rev Growth5.9%
Profit Growth13.5%
EV/EBITDA24.58
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
69.0M
Charter Capital
690.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Vận tải
Sub-industry
Vận tải Thủy
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VST — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Hàng hải Việt Nam
Inst
43.3%
29.9 trieu
Công ty TNHH Mua bán nợ Việt Nam
Inst
10.4%
7.1 trieu
Trương Đình Sơn
Indiv
5.6%
3.3 trieu
Quỹ tầm nhìn SSI
Inst
4.7%
2.8 trieu
Công Đoàn Công ty Cổ Phần Vận Tải Và Thuê Tàu Biển Việt Nam
Inst
2.8%
1.9 trieu
Phan Lê Tân
Indiv
0.8%
480.000
Phạm Thị Cẩm Hà
Indiv
0.2%
117.248
Huỳnh Nam Anh
Indiv
0.1%
96.962
Board & Management
Huỳnh Nam Anh0.1%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Quỳnh Liên
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thế Lê Nhân
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Lê Kim Phượng
Kế toán trưởng
Mai Thị Thu Vân
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Trung Dũng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Thị Thu Hà
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trịnh Hữu Lương
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Vũ Thị Diệp
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thanh Ngọc
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Vương Nguyễn Triều Quang
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Dương Đình Ninh
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

By using vnvalue you accept the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Full disclaimer →