VDT

Cyclicals

Công ty Cổ phần Lưới thép Bình Tây

Tài nguyên Cơ bản/Kim loạiCT

7.400

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

23.326

Current

7.400

Gap

+215.2%

ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Tài nguyên Cơ bản→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Tài nguyên Cơ bản" maps to the cyclical group

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→5.05B

Fair EV/EBITDA→8.3x

Years of data→7

Valuation

Mid-Cycle EBITDA

5.05B

Fair EV/EBITDA

8.3x

Net Debt

-4.19B

Equity Value

23.326

Years of data→7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VDT

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

0.45

High Risk

DSRI

4.105

GMI

0.853

AQI

1.287

SGI

0.871

DEPI

1.242

SGAI

1.297

TATA

0.036

LVGI

0.985

VDT exhibits significant red flags indicating potential earnings manipulation, particularly highlighted by a Beneish M-Score of 0.4477, which is above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. Additionally, the company's earnings quality score of 35.9/100 reflects severe issues in cash conversion and receivables management.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of 0.4477 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is above the threshold of -1.78.
DSRI of 4.1050 suggests significant increases in receivables relative to sales, raising concerns about revenue recognition.
Earnings Quality Score of 35.9/100, particularly low cash conversion score of 2.5/100 and receivables score of 0.0/100, indicates poor earnings quality.

Positive Signals

Strong institutional ownership at 40.1% by Tổng Công ty Thép Việt Nam may provide stability and oversight.
High eq_margin score of 94.3/100 indicates strong profitability relative to revenues.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated, with the top shareholder holding 40.1%, which could lead to potential conflicts of interest and reduced accountability in governance.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence, particularly focusing on cash flow and receivables management, before considering any investment in VDT.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

7.90

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-1.02

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-34.5%

Volatility

140.7%

Max Drawdown

-78.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024

13.91P/E

P/B0.53

P/S0.19

ROE4.2%

ROA3.6%

EPS583.28

BVPS13665.76

Gross Margin10.9%

Net Margin1.6%

D/E0.16

Current Ratio5.64

Rev Growth-12.9%

Profit Growth-42.1%

EV/EBITDA3.23

Div Yield11.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

2.0M

Charter Capital

19.7B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Tài nguyên Cơ bản

Industry (ICB L3)

Kim loại

Sub-industry

Thép và sản phẩm thép

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VDT — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Thép Việt Nam

Inst

40.1%

787.450

Lê Thị Kim Chính

Indiv

17.6%

345.120

Nguyễn Trung Nghị

Indiv

11.5%

226.230

Nguyễn Kiên Giang

Indiv

11.5%

226.230

Nguyễn Hồng Lương

Indiv

7.6%

149.380

Lê Hải Tú

Indiv

4.8%

94.760

Lê Thị Phương Dung

Indiv

1.1%

22.430

Nguyễn Văn Sáu

Indiv

1.1%

20.850

Trần Văn Tuấn

Indiv

0.1%

2.610

Board & Management

Lê Thị Kim Chính17.6%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Hồng Lương7.6%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Hải Tú4.8%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Lê Thị Phương Dung1.1%

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng

Trần Văn Tuấn0.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Huỳnh Thị Tuyết Trâm

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Trịnh Thị Mai Phượng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Đoàn Phong

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Bùi Thị Thu Nga

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

VIN95.4%HMG89.4%TNB84.8%TDS65.0%TIS65.0%HMC55.7%VGL51.0%SDK45.0%KMT40.1%PSD40.1%TNS40.1%TRT40.1%

Computed 12/04/2026