KMT

Cyclicals

Công ty Cổ phần Kim khí Miền Trung

Tài nguyên Cơ bản/Kim loạiCT

12.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

5.595

Current

12.000

Gap

-53.4%

ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Tài nguyên Cơ bản→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Tài nguyên Cơ bản" maps to the cyclical group

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→31.06B

Fair EV/EBITDA→20.6x

Years of data→7

Valuation

Mid-Cycle EBITDA

31.06B

Fair EV/EBITDA

20.6x

Net Debt

584.60B

Equity Value

5.595

Years of data→7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — KMT

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.23

Moderate

DSRI

0.848

GMI

1.288

AQI

1.106

SGI

1.161

DEPI

0.973

SGAI

0.849

TATA

0.007

LVGI

0.999

KMT exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.2262, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant concerns, particularly with cash conversion, which is at a low 13.4/100, suggesting potential issues with cash flow management.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 66.1/100, with a notably low cash conversion rate of 13.4/100, indicating potential liquidity issues.
GMI of 1.2883, which is above 1, suggesting a potential decline in gross margins that may indicate operational inefficiencies.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.2262, which is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
Strong receivables quality score of 100.0/100, suggesting effective management of credit risk.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with the top shareholder, Tổng Công ty Thép Việt Nam, holding 38.3%. This concentration can lead to governance risks, as decisions may favor the interests of a few over minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow metrics and consider the implications of concentrated ownership. A deeper analysis of operational efficiency and liquidity management is recommended before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

7.12

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.56

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+27.6%

Volatility

58.9%

Max Drawdown

-34.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

19.07P/E

P/B0.87

P/S0.02

ROE4.5%

ROA0.8%

EPS634.62

BVPS13829.65

Gross Margin1.7%

Net Margin0.1%

D/E4.69

Current Ratio1.09

Rev Growth16.1%

Profit Growth-41.7%

EV/EBITDA31.72

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

9.8M

Charter Capital

98.5B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Tài nguyên Cơ bản

Industry (ICB L3)

Kim loại

Sub-industry

Thép và sản phẩm thép

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for KMT — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Thép Việt Nam

Inst

38.3%

3.8 trieu

nguyen-quynh-hoa

Indiv

24.6%

2.4 trieu

Phạm Huỳnh Thảo Trân

Indiv

24.0%

2.4 trieu

Võ Hựu

Indiv

1.3%

126.327

Thân Thanh

Indiv

1.0%

94.310

Nguyễn Bá Tòng

Indiv

0.7%

69.461

Huỳnh Tấn Quế

Indiv

0.7%

66.573

Nguyễn Việt Hải

Indiv

0.7%

64.185

Võ Văn Cả

Indiv

0.3%

33.739

Board & Management

Huỳnh Trung Quang

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Văn Châu

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

NGUYỄN ANH HOÀNG

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Đoàn Công Sơn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Thanh Lâm

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Văn Bốn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Nguyễn Hoàng Nam Thành Tuấn

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Tuyết Nga

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Đăng Loan

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng

NGUYỄN MINH ĐỨC

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Top connections

VIN95.4%HMG89.4%TNB84.8%TDS65.0%TIS65.0%HMC55.7%VGL51.0%SDK45.0%VDT40.1%PSD38.3%TNS38.3%TRT38.3%

Computed 12/04/2026