HMG

Cyclicals

Công ty Cổ phần Kim Khí Hà Nội - VNSTEEL

Tài nguyên Cơ bản/Kim loạiCT

4.700

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

8.939

Current

4.700

Gap

+90.2%

ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Tài nguyên Cơ bản→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Tài nguyên Cơ bản" maps to the cyclical group

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→18.20B

Fair EV/EBITDA→14.1x

Years of data→7

Valuation

Mid-Cycle EBITDA

18.20B

Fair EV/EBITDA

14.1x

Net Debt

177.04B

Equity Value

8.939

Years of data→7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HMG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-2.35

Moderate

DSRI

0.933

GMI

0.974

AQI

1.559

SGI

1.014

DEPI

1.081

SGAI

1.095

TATA

-0.006

LVGI

0.985

HMG exhibits a low risk of earnings manipulation as indicated by its Beneish M-Score of -2.3463, which is well below the manipulation threshold. The company's strong earnings quality score of 88.9/100 further supports the integrity of its financial reporting.

Positive Signals

Earnings Quality Score of 88.9/100 indicates strong overall earnings quality.
High accrual score of 97.7/100 suggests that earnings are backed by actual cash flows.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated with Tổng Công ty Thép Việt Nam holding 89.4%, which may pose risks related to governance and minority shareholder interests.

Recommendation

Investors should monitor the company's performance closely but can consider it a stable investment given the low risk of manipulation and strong earnings quality.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

11.13

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-1.43

Negative

Composite

Strong

Price Risk

Momentum

+3.5%

Volatility

81.1%

Max Drawdown

-68.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024

9.03P/E

P/B0.82

P/S0.02

ROE10.6%

ROA2.9%

EPS1255.85

BVPS11919.82

Gross Margin1.7%

Net Margin0.3%

D/E2.63

Current Ratio1.33

Rev Growth1.4%

Profit Growth-2.3%

EV/EBITDA11.88

Div Yield8.2%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

9.0M

Charter Capital

90.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Tài nguyên Cơ bản

Industry (ICB L3)

Kim loại

Sub-industry

Thép và sản phẩm thép

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HMG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Thép Việt Nam

Inst

89.4%

8.0 trieu

Board & Management

Trần Thị Hoa Lý

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Nguyễn Thị Anh Đào

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Kiều Thị Thu Hương

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Hoàng Việt

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Thu Hiền

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Thanh Hương

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Hà Thị Thu Hiền

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Hoàng Ngọc Chiến

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Huy Thành

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Top connections

VIN95.4%TNB89.4%TDS89.4%TIS89.4%HMC89.4%VGL89.4%SDK89.4%VDT89.4%KMT89.4%PSD89.4%TNS89.4%TRT89.4%

Computed 12/04/2026